Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, and...

Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark

Barring injuries, we all know that wide receiver Reggie Wayne and tight end Dallas Clark will have tremendous fantasy value this year.  After all, Peyton Manning's offense is always among the most prolific.  However, since Marvin Harrison's retirement one year ago, fantasy managers have been looking to see who will fill the star wide receiver roll opposite Wayne in Indianapolis.  In 2009, it was believed that Anthony Gonzalez would be the other guy, but an injury cost him his golden opportunity, and Manning turned to Pierre Carçon and Austin Collie to pick up the slack.

Everyone seemed to agree that Carçon would be the other wide receiver in Indy to have significant fantasy value in 2010, but Collie's performance in week one (163 yrds, 1 TD) is giving us all pause.  Will it be Collie and not Carçon who achieves fantasy stardom?  The answer probably won't make anyone happy, but here's how I see it...

Austin Collie and Pierre Carçon

Peyton Manning clearly has a lot of confidence in both Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark when he needs someone to make a big play.  They are both talented veterans who have proven their worth to Mannning time and time again, and have developed invaluable chemistry with the league's best helmsman.  On the other hand, Carçon, Collie, and Gonzalez has each shown talent and developed good communication with their quarterback.  Manning has to trust each of these guys but none of them as much as he does Wayne or Clark.

The result of this scenario will end up being something like the situation in New Orleans where Drew Brees spreads the ball around too efficiently to make anyone other than himself and Marques Colston a fantasy star.  In 2010, when you hear Pierre Carçon, Austin Collie, or Anthony Gonzalez, think Robert Meachem and Devery Henderson.  All of these guys will have some spectacular weeks, but none of them will be reliable on a consistent basis unless injury puts them into a more prevalent roll.

Though you can't expect too much from any of the other wide receivers in Indianapolis, that doesn't mean they don't have any value.  Austin Collie owners should consider trading him at high value after his impressive performance last week, before he fantasy numbers come back to earth.  Carçon, and Gonzalez will likely have similar weeks in the near future, raising their respective values on the trade market.  Even if you can't unload your Indy WR, consider starting him based on your fantasy matchup in a given week.  If you are playing a daunting opponent, you may want to start a player like Collie who has the potential to put up huge numbers rather than someone like Santana Moss who will almost certainly put up solid numbers, but will probably not put up huge numbers.  Then rotate Moss back into the starting lineup when you play a weaker opponent and want to go for the sure thing.  Rotating all-or-nothing players with solid-but-unspectacular players can help you optimize wins and bring you to a championship.

Collie, Carçon, and to a lesser extent Carçon, are perfect examples of the all-or-nothing players and players who will fetch a lot a lot on the trade market after a big performance.  Treat them that way; none of them are Reggie Wayne in the fantasy world, or the real world.