Week 2: How I Did

Week 2 was another mixed performance for me in the world of fantasy football.  My fantasy team put up a lot more points and would have given me a win against almost anyone in my league this week, unfortunately not the team I played.  I bounced back with my football picks to put myself in first place in my pick'em league, and I remain alive in my survival league.

Fantasy Footbal - Critical Values

Loss- NY Foot Soldiers 97 - The Cores 124
All of my wide receivers had strong outings, including the ones on my bench, which is reassuring after my week 1 struggles at the position.  Aaron Rodgers was also great, and Chris Cooley is looking like one of the best fantasy tight ends right now.  Unfortunately, my running backs, particularly Maurice Jones-Drew, let me down.  I hope he won't be plagued by injuries all season long.  I need him to succeed.

Matchup:

League Standings:

Pick'em - Positive Predictive Values

11-5 (Win)
Big come back from me here.  Week 1 is always the most difficult for picking games because you don't really know what to expect.  My performance in week two brought me from last place (two points behind the leaders) to first place, and gave me a win which helps my tie-breaker status at the end of the season.  If I keep picking like this, I can start to move ahead of the pack!

League Standings:

Survival - Negative Selection

Alive
Picking against the Bills carried me through another week of survival football with ease.  Another team fell out of the running this week, and yet another narrowly escaped disaster when Houston defeated the Redskins in overtime.  I'm a little disappointed that I already used up the Packers, but there's a lot more teams to lean on, and some surprise powerhouses are still just making themselves known.

League Standings:

High Risk, High Reward

If you are serious about fantasy football, chances are that you've seen that phrase on more than one occassion.  Frank Gore and Ronnie Brown were high risk, high reward draft options because they are tremendous when they're healthy, but they both have a tendancy to get injured.  C.J. Spiller was called high risk, high reward because he was the best running back in his draft class going to the worst team in the NFL.  In the world of fantasy football, high risk, high reward moves can make or break your football team, and not just in your draft.

We are now past the two week mark in the football season.  Ever hear the phrase "a little knowlege is a dangerous thing?"  Well, that's exactly where we all are at this point.  In two weeks, we have been given just enough information to start drawing conclusions, but not enough to feel confident in them.  This is the time when you can make a risky move.  It's a window that will close fairly quickly, because in a few short weeks, we will all have more information and will be more comfortable with our evaluations.  So, if you're thinking about trading Santana Moss for Shonn Greene, now's the time to do it, but be careful or you could get burned!  Here are a few rules when considering high risk, high reward changes to your fantasy roster:

1) Don't Mess With Success

If you believed your team was championship bound when you first drafted it and have done spectacularly well in the first two weeks, then now is not the time to take risks.  I'm not saying you shouldn't explore ways to strengthen your already stunning roster, but you shouldn't roll the dice to do it.

Players like Tom Brady and Maurice Jones-Drew are proven fantasy players.  Despite how they may have performed in the first two weeks, you don't want to take any risks with a player like that.  Remember, it's about high risk, high reward.  Trading Aaron Rodgers for Michael Vick will be close to even if you're lucky, and it's likely that you'll get burned.  Trust those players that deserve your trust and resist the urge to do something reckless.  A lot of novice fantasy managers make their biggest mistakes at this time of the season.  Don't be one of them.

2) Address Your Needs

So, you expect that Shonn Greene will ultimately live up to his pre-draft expectations, and you plan on making a modest trade to acquire him while the price is low.  That's not a bad idea, if you need help at that position.  If, however, you already have Chris Johnson, Arian Foster, and Jahvid Best, you'd be crazy to take a risk like that.  Even if it pays off, all that you've given yourself is a solid backup or trade fodder.  On the other hand, when your wide receivers look thin later on in the season, you might wish you hadn't given up Santana Moss after all.

There's nothing wrong with taking risks, but if you don't address a need your fantasy team has, then you aren't maximizing the reward if your gamble pays off.

3)  Buy Low, Sell High

My earlier example of going after Shonn Greene is a great one here.  Risky week two moves are all about trading away a player that you feel has overperformed for a player that has underperformed.  If you're right, then you can make a huge upgrade to your fantasy roster.  If you're wrong, however, then you just caught a falling knife.  But if you were clever, then at least you didn't give up a rising star to do it.  If you can spot a player on your roster who has done more in the first two weeks than you believe he will do for the rest of the season, you can minimize your risk by unloading a player who you believe won't bring you much success down the road.

4)  Be Confident

If you feel unsure that a move is the right one, don't make it.  Championships aren't won but being reckless.  You should feel good about any player you're acquiring and not particularly good about any player you let go.  You should believe that the risk is worth the reward, and that you need to take a risk or two to put yourself into contention.

5)  Be Decisive

Now's the time to do it.  In a couple of weeks, everyone will know enough to avoid making a costly mistake, and the chance to buy someone cheep will be over.

Once you make a trade, or drop one player for another, you're invested.  If your new fantasy player doesn't immediately start to perform, you should be patient.  He probably won't fetch you much on the trade market any way.  Don't be the fool who acquired Shonn Greene, dropped him two weeks later, and saw him break out in week 6 and end up on someone else's roster.  If you need to take the risk and you could afford to do so, then you can afford to wait to see if it pays off.

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Follow these rules when rolling the dice and you can decrease the chance of rolling a snake-eyes that ruins your entire season.  I urge anyone reading this to be careful, smart, and decisive when making any roster move, no matter how risky or safe it is.  Above all else, follow your instincts.  You are the one managing your fantasy team, not the guy who's advice you're reading online.  It's your team and you're the only one who can lead it to victory.

If anyone is considering making a risky move and would like my input, feel free to hit up the comments.  Good luck everyone!

Lineup Change

I've been on the fence with this all week, but at the last second, I switched Sims-Walker out for Dez Bryant.  I have to give Bryant a chance after the number of targets he received last week against the Bears' secondary.  I just hope I don't regret this move...

Week 2: Matchup and Picks

My Matchup:

Other Matchups:

Innane Immunity (0-1) vs. taco trali (1-0)
HgbA1C (0-0-1) vs. Revis Islanders* (0-1)
Stat Attack (0-1) vs. Currently Nameless (1-0)
MOD (1-0) vs. Philly Chromosomes (0-1)
Trojans!* (1-0) vs. Sicker Jets D (1-0)

*My Division Rivals

My Picks:

In addition to playing fantasy football, I play in a pickem league (where you select who you think will win each game every week) and a survival league (select one team every week that you think will win its matchup--you are out when you get one wrong and you cannot pick the same team twice). You can find all three football games on Yahoo!

Every week, I will give my football picks along with my thoughts regarding any particularly interesting matchups. As always, you should feel free to open up a discussion with comments. Here are this week's matchups with my picks in blue, my survival pick in purple, and previous survival picks crossed out.

Atlanta vs. Arizona
The Falcons couldn't squeak by the Steelers, even with Roethlisberger's suspension, but I expect them to bounce back against Arizona which, without Kurt Warner, looks like a Cardinal with its head cut off.

Cincinnati vs. Baltimore
The Ravens had a short week to work with and the Bengals have to be angry after being humiliated by New England, but there's just too many ways Flacco and company can burn you.

Cleveland vs. Kansas City

Dallas vs. Chicago
The Cowboys looked completely discombobulated last week, but with the return of two starting offensive linemen, their offense should settle down.

Detroit vs. Philadelphia
Both teams lost their starting quarterbacks last week, but I'd feel better with Vick behind center than Hill.

Green Bay vs. Buffalo
Two opponents fell in week one, and week two has a lot of tough matchups.  Looking at the Packers' schedule, there aren't that many perfect weeks to save them for, so I'm going with the safe pick this week for my Survival League.

Tennessee vs. Pittsburgh
This will be trench warfare, but the Titans have the better artillery with Vince Young.

Minnesota vs. Miami
The Vikings' defense is just too good, and Favre will get back on track this week.

Carolina vs. Tampa Bay

Denver vs. Seattle

Oakland vs. St. Louis

New York Jets vs. New England
If the Jets can contain Wes Welker and convert third down, they can win a relatively low scoring game.  I suspect they'll pull it off, but it won't be pretty.

San Diego vs. Jacksonville

Washington vs. Houston
Last week the Texans showed us what they can do on the ground.  Against the Redskins, they'll remind us what they can do through the air.

Indianapolis vs. New York Giants
The Colts start 0-2?  Not likely!  The Giants will succeed early with their running game, but once the Colts gain the lead, little brother Eli won't be able to keep up.

San Francisco vs. New Orleans

Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, and...

Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark

Barring injuries, we all know that wide receiver Reggie Wayne and tight end Dallas Clark will have tremendous fantasy value this year.  After all, Peyton Manning's offense is always among the most prolific.  However, since Marvin Harrison's retirement one year ago, fantasy managers have been looking to see who will fill the star wide receiver roll opposite Wayne in Indianapolis.  In 2009, it was believed that Anthony Gonzalez would be the other guy, but an injury cost him his golden opportunity, and Manning turned to Pierre Carçon and Austin Collie to pick up the slack.

Everyone seemed to agree that Carçon would be the other wide receiver in Indy to have significant fantasy value in 2010, but Collie's performance in week one (163 yrds, 1 TD) is giving us all pause.  Will it be Collie and not Carçon who achieves fantasy stardom?  The answer probably won't make anyone happy, but here's how I see it...

Austin Collie and Pierre Carçon

Peyton Manning clearly has a lot of confidence in both Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark when he needs someone to make a big play.  They are both talented veterans who have proven their worth to Mannning time and time again, and have developed invaluable chemistry with the league's best helmsman.  On the other hand, Carçon, Collie, and Gonzalez has each shown talent and developed good communication with their quarterback.  Manning has to trust each of these guys but none of them as much as he does Wayne or Clark.

The result of this scenario will end up being something like the situation in New Orleans where Drew Brees spreads the ball around too efficiently to make anyone other than himself and Marques Colston a fantasy star.  In 2010, when you hear Pierre Carçon, Austin Collie, or Anthony Gonzalez, think Robert Meachem and Devery Henderson.  All of these guys will have some spectacular weeks, but none of them will be reliable on a consistent basis unless injury puts them into a more prevalent roll.

Though you can't expect too much from any of the other wide receivers in Indianapolis, that doesn't mean they don't have any value.  Austin Collie owners should consider trading him at high value after his impressive performance last week, before he fantasy numbers come back to earth.  Carçon, and Gonzalez will likely have similar weeks in the near future, raising their respective values on the trade market.  Even if you can't unload your Indy WR, consider starting him based on your fantasy matchup in a given week.  If you are playing a daunting opponent, you may want to start a player like Collie who has the potential to put up huge numbers rather than someone like Santana Moss who will almost certainly put up solid numbers, but will probably not put up huge numbers.  Then rotate Moss back into the starting lineup when you play a weaker opponent and want to go for the sure thing.  Rotating all-or-nothing players with solid-but-unspectacular players can help you optimize wins and bring you to a championship.

Collie, Carçon, and to a lesser extent Carçon, are perfect examples of the all-or-nothing players and players who will fetch a lot a lot on the trade market after a big performance.  Treat them that way; none of them are Reggie Wayne in the fantasy world, or the real world.

Week 2: Start or Sit

A lot of fantasy experts advise their readers which players should be on a starting roster and which should be on the bench in a given week.  While this can be helpful, if you read a lot of fantasy blogs (as I do) then you will see a lot of contradictory advice which can be very confusing.  In the end, do you start reliable talent against a difficult matchup, or do you go with the unreliable player with an encouraging matchup?

Every situation is different, and I think that to receive good advice, your advisor has to know some details about your situation like what your roster looks like and perhaps even what your opponent's roster looks like.  For that reason, I won't make a list of players to start and sit, but I will be happy to answer questions specific to your fantasy team.  If there's anyone out there who's unsure who he/she should start this week, fire away!

Robbed of a Win!!!

A 32-yard reception that resulted in a lost fumble at the Houston nine-yard line was initially credited to Pierre Garcon in the official statistics Sunday, but was later changed to Collie, the Indianapolis Star reports. Collie finished with 11 receptions for 163 yards, a fumble, and a touchdown.

The finding of this statistical oversight resulted in Austin Collie receiving one more fantasy point for week one.  Because of this, my week one opponent, HgbA1C, now has a final score of 73 points, making the result of our matchup A TIE!!!

To top it all off, my starting quarterback, Aaron Rodgers, had 16 fantasy points until he took a knee at the end of the game against the Eagles to run out the clock, causing him to lose one rushing yard.  This brought his rushing total from 10 yards to 9 yards and brought his fantasy score down to 15 points.  That knee and the Collie error together cost me a win in week 1, and I'm not happy about it...

Week 2: Free Agency Radar

About two weeks ago, I posted some advice for how you can find value in free agency after the start of the season.  You can read that post here.  Although we are only one week into the fantasy season, there are already some diamonds sparkling through the rough that you should consider adding to your fantasy roster.

Brandon Jackson: Week 1's Biggest FA

RB Brandon Jackson (GB)

In case you haven't heard, Ryan Grant injured his ankle in Sunday's game against the Eagles, and he isn't just out for a few weeks, he is out for the season!  Jackson's own coach has sung his praises, calling him an "every down back."  If you can manage to get your hand on him, Jackson will be a great free agent acquisition.

WR Mark Clayton (Stl)
With Donnie Avery out for the season, the Rams went ahead and traded for Mark Clayton.  Bradford looked to Clayton early and often on Sunday allowing the receiver to total 117 receiving yards.  If you are carrying any empty baggage at wide receiver, throw it overboard and pick up Clayton who may be in for a break out season.

WR Legedu Naanee (SD)
Naanee looked like Philip Rivers' favorite target (after Antonio Gates) on Monday night, and Malcolm Floyd and Rivers never seemed to be on quite the same page.  With Vincent Jackson's holdout going nowhere, Naanee could be the guy in this wide receiver corps.  However, you should take Naanee with a grain of salt.  He will share receptions with Floyd and Gates and shouldn't be seen as more than a WR3.

WR Mike Williams (TB)
I grabbed Williams before week 1, and he didn't disappoint.  Although he only accumulated 30 receiving yards in Tampa Bay's game against the Browns, Williams did score a touchdown, and almost scored a second one.  With limited offensive weapons, Josh Freeman will look to Williams a lot this year, including in the red zone.  If Freeman develops into a reliable quarterback, Williams can have huge upside.

Don't be fooled by Brandon Lloyd (Den) who posted 117 receiving yards against the Jaguars on Sunday.  He has been in the league for a while now and hasn't done much.  Jabar Gaffney and Eddie Royal will also get there share of targets this year and I don't see Lloyd being a consistent option, but keep your eye on him all the same.

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So there you have it.  Chances are that at least a couple of these guys are still available in your fantasy league, regardless of the size.  If you don't feel comfortable dropping any of your players for a free agent at this point, make sure to at least keep your eye on these players in the coming weeks, but be careful... if you don't grab them, someone else will.

Week 1: How I Did

This wasn't a great fantasy week for me, but it wasn't bad either.  If this performance represents my floor more than my ceiling, than I'm in for a great fantasy season (I'm hoping that's the case).  But I'll just have to wait and see.  Here's how my week went...

Fantasy Football - Critical Values

Win- NY Foot Soldiers 73 - HgbA1C 72
Man, talk about a close game.  My team was solid almost accross the board, but unspectacular everywhere.  DeSean Jackson and Mike Sims-Walker were my fantasy zeroes this week, and Donovan McNabb was my fantasy hero, despite not being on my fantasy team, throwing to Santana Moss and Chris Cooley enough to give them a combined 15 pts.  I expect more from Aaron Rodgers down the road.

League Standings:

Pick'em - Positive Predictive Values

8-8
Ouch.  This was as bad a week as I've ever had picking winners, and not a great way to start the season.  The good news is that I'm only 2 pts. out of first place, so if I am solid for the next few weeks, I can get into the lead, but I can't afford another week like this.

League Standings:

Survival - Negative Selection

Alive
I mad it through week 1 without using up any powerhouse teams.  But I think I will have to use one to get through week 2.  Still, it's nice to have hung in there when two opponents have already fallen.

League Standings:

1st and 15

For most fantasy players: one down fifteen to go.  But what have we really learned after fourteen football games?  In some cases, our suspicions have been confirmed--Arian Foster is for real.  In other cases, we are left with some serious doubts.  Here are the big question marks as I see them after our first football Sunday and whether they are cause for concern or not.

Cause For Concern

Tony Romo - Dallas, we have a problem!  The worry surrounding the Cowboys' offensive line after the preseason was well founded.  The o-line didn't just look bad against the Redskins on Sunday night, it clearly made Tony Romo uncomfortable.  Romo couldn't wait to get rid of the football in the face of Washington's pass rush.  If Romo is continually "rushed" into making bad decisions this year against some dominant pass rushes (there are more than a couple in the NFC east) owners of the marquee quarterback may have more interceptions to look forward to than touchdowns.  Owners of Dallas' other offensive fantasy stars shouldn't be worried, unless Romo gets hurt.

Kevin Kolb - When Kolb faced off against the Packers on Sunday, he didn't look good, he got injured, and his replacement played pretty well.  Though Andy Reid should be committed to Kolb, the winds can change quickly in Philadelphia.  Kolb owners should pick up Vick as a handcuff (at least until Kolb returns from his injury) if they don't already have another starter-worthy quarterback on their rosters.

C.J. Spiller - Spiller began creating a lot of fantasy buzz when fellow running backs Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson got hurt in the preseason, and Spiller started playing well.  Reality check: 1) Spiller looked good during the preseason against second and third string players.  2) Spiller plays for the Buffalo Bills, easily one of the worst teams of 2010.  Playing for a team that has a weak offensive line and no passing game to speak of doesn't bode will for a running back who isn't Barry Sanders.  3) Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch are coming back, and they will get their share of the touches.  If you drafted Spiller as a starting running back, you should be concerned after seeing his production against a starting defense.  I recommend shopping him on the trade market to see what bounces back.  Spiller may be a decent stand-in if he has a good matchup, but he should not be relied upon on a weekly basis in any format.

Matthew Stafford - If Stafford is more than a backup for a bye and injuries, you have good reason to be concerned.  Stafford sustained a shoulder injury to his throwing arm in Sunday's loss to the Bears.  He will reportedly be out for 4-6 weeks.  With Stafford missing that much playing time and practice, how sharp can he be upon his return, even if his arm is fully healed?  Unless you are planning on holding onto Stafford in a keeper league, you may not want to wait too long before dropping him if you can find a suitable replacement.

Don't Panic

Calvin Johnson - Bad news for Stafford is bad news for Johnson, but now is hardly the time to panic for Megatron owners.  Johnson will have some tough matchups in the next few weeks when Stafford is on the sideline, but he is still one of the most valuable wide receivers in the fantasy world, and will be there for you down the stretch of the season when you need him.  And don't worry about that "dropped pass" that he had in the end zone.  If you can't get a fair value out of trading Johnson, don't even think about it.

Matt Schaub - Right now there are some Schaub (and Andre Johnson) owners who are worried that the Texans new found running game will leave Schaub out in the fantasy cold.  Believe me, Arian Foster's success is good news for Schaub.  With a more balanced attack, Schaub should get more time in the pocket, and have an easier time finding an open receiver.  The receivers themselves will see lighter coverage as opposing defenses commit more players to stopping the run.  Also, with Owen Daniels' return, Schaub will get his opportunities to pass in the red zone, so don't think that Foster will steal away all of his touchdowns either.  Expect Schaub to bounce back as soon as defenses start worrying about the Texans' running game.

Mike Sims-Walker - Sims-Walker didn't record a single catch in Jacksonville's 24-17 win over the Broncos, but chalk that up to a bad matchup.  This should remind us fantasy owners that we should consider starting a mediocre wide receiver with a favorable matchup over the stud playing against a shut-down corner.  And while we're on the subject, don't panic over any wide receiver who had a quiet day because he was playing a tough matchup.

Frank Gore - It's frustrating for fantasy owners, but sometimes running backs just get off to a slow start.  It can be frightening when your first-round draft choice under performs in the first week, but if you're thinking of trading Gore for Darren McFadden or Ahmad Bradshaw, you better sit on your hands for a week before you do something you'll regret!

Week 1: Matchup

Here is my starting lineup and matchup for week 1.  I'm feeling pretty confident going up against the current league champion, but he's the clear strength in his division.

I can't say that I'm happy playing the Philadelphia defense against the Packers, especially with Aaron Rodgers as my quarterback, but I don't have a backup defense and I can't afford to drop anyone from my roster until I spot some dead weight.

I will keep an eye on Santana Moss and Dez Bryant to see who becomes the more consistent WR3.  Meanwhile, Mike Williams will have to show me something in the first 2-3 weeks to stay on my roster.

My Matchup:

MY Bench:

QB: Chad Henne (Mia) vs. Buffalo
This is an easy matchup for Henne, and I expect him to do well with new toy Brandon Marshall, but Aaron Rodgers is the clear starter.  I will watch this investment, hoping for some signs of keeper potential.

WR: Dez Bryant (Dal) vs. Washington
I expect Bryant to eventually work his way into being a main weapon of this offense, but not in week 1, and not after being injured for most of the preseason.  Moss is the safer play this week.

WR: Mike Williams (TB) vs. Cleveland
As a free agent acquisition, Williams is my deep sleeper wide receiver.  He will have to show me something early, or I will drop him for another talented free agent.

RB: Felix Jones (Dal) vs. Washington
Jones' value will depend on how many shares of the carries he gets in Dallas.  I hope he proves to be dependable because he's my stand-in for byes right now, and my insurance policy for Ronnie Brown.

RB: Carnell Williams (TB) vs. Cleveland
Williams potential rests on the fact that he's the guy right now in Tampa with Derrick Ward out of the picture, but he may not have the explosiveness to take advantage.  He may prove to be dependable, or he may be replaced before the season is over.

TE: Owen Daniels (Hou) vs. Indianapolis
Most weeks, Daniels would be my starter, but word is that he will be limited in the season opener, still recovering from knee surgery.  Cooley is a solid stand-in, but I want Daniels to be 100% for week 2.

Other Matchups:

Innane Immunity (0-0) vs. MOD (0-0)
Revis Islanders* (0-0) vs. Sicker Jets D (0-0)
Stat Attack (0-0) vs. taco trali (0-0)
Trojans!* (0-0) vs. The Cores (0-0)
Philly Chromosomes (0-0) vs. Currently Nameless (0-0)

*My Division Rivals

Week 1: Picks

In addition to playing fantasy football, I play in a pickem league (where you select who you think will win each game every week) and a survival league (select one team every week that you think will win its matchup--you are out when you get one wrong and you cannot pick the same team twice). You can find all three football games on Yahoo!

Every week, I will give my football picks along with my thoughts regarding any particularly interesting matchups. As always, you should feel free to open up a discussion with comments. Here are this week's matchups with my picks in blue, and my survival pick in purple.

New Orleans vs. Minnesota
A rematch of last year's NFC championship. I like the Saints to repeat their win while Favre struggles to find new targets in the passing game.

Buffalo vs. Miami
C.J. Spiller is the only thing the Bills have going for them. The well-rounded Dolphins are my survival pick of the week.

Chicago vs. Detroit

Tennessee vs. Oakland

New England vs. Cincinnati
Tom Brady is still an elite quarterback and Randy Moss is still an elite wide receiver. Welker will be there to help in the short passing game, but with a weak defense and undefined running game, the Patriots have become 1-dimensional. The Bengals are anything but.

New York Giants vs. Carolina

Pittsburgh vs. Atlanta
The Steelers will lean on their running game and defense, rejuvenated by the return of Troy Polomalu. Dixon avoids making any big mistakes which is enough to win a close one against the Falcons.

Tampa Bay vs. Cleveland

Jacksonville vs. Denver

Houston vs. Indianapolis
I really like Houston this year, but as they spend the year figuring out just how good they really are, the Colts already know how good they are (having won at least 12 games for the last seven years). The Colts give Houston a lesson.

St. Louis vs. Arizona
The Cardinals are about to learn just how much they needed Kurt Warner to be a playoff team. The loss of Boldin just makes matters worse as Fitzgerald will see double coverage all day.

Philadelphia vs. Green Bay

Seattle vs. San Francisco

Washington vs. Dallas
The Cowboys will be in big trouble this season until they solve their offensive line issues. I actually wouldn't be at all surprised if Washington walked away with a win here, but I think the Cowboys slip through.

New York Jets vs. Baltimore
This may be the most intriguing matchup of the week as Rex Ryan takes on his old team. The Ravens are one of the elite teams in the AFC this year, but early growing pains for this offense will be exacerbated as they face the Jets' smothering defense. Mark Sanchez has to avoid turnovers to seal the deal.

Kansas City vs. San Diego

How I See It

My 2010 NFL Power Rankings

Playoff Berths:

AFC                                                                             NFC

East - Jets                                                                  East - Cowboys

North - Ravens                                                        North - Packers

West - Chargers                                                       West - 49ers

South - Colts                                                             South - Saints

Wildcards - Texans, Bengals                              Wildcards - Vikings, Falcons

Superbowl:

Packers vs. Colts (Packers win)

The Vincent Jackson Dilemma

Just a few weeks ago, Vincent Jackson was viewed as one of the elite wide receivers in the world of fantasy football.  That was before Jackson was suspended for an additonal three weeks (bringing his total suspension to six weeks) and had a potential trade blocked by the San Diego Chargers.  Unfortunately, it wasn't before many fantasy leagues held their drafts for 2010, putting managers in the uncomfortable position of owning Jackson, a comodoty whose fantasy value has reached rock bottom.

Most recently, Jackson's fantasy value has taken a further plunge as all 32 teams in the NFL have finalized their rosters for the season.  With T.J. Houshmandzadeh accepting a minimum contract to play with the Ravens, how much interest can their possibly be for Jackson at this point, and with the Chargers blocking any attempt to be traded, does it even matter?  Further, the Chargers' acquisition of Patrick Crayton shows that they are prepared to move on without Jackson and likely will not give in to his contract demands, and let's face it, in the unspectacular AFC West, the Chargers don't exactly need Jackson to win the division.

So yes, all signs indicate that Jackson will continue his holdout, will not get the contract he is seeking from the Chargers, and will not get traded.  But make no mistake, trading Jackson now would be a mistake.  Here are the reasons why you should keep V.J. if you have him, and might even want to consider trading for him if you don't.

Jackson will play weeks 10-16 this season.  If he doesn't, he will not accrue another year towards free-agency, and that would be a disaster for him.  Additionally, Jackson will have every incentive to play hard in those games, as they will be his only chance to make a case for deserving a bigger contract before the 2011 season.  If you can keep your fantasy team aimed at the playoffs until Jackson's return, you will be rewarded with a clear WR1 who not only will play hard, but will be healthy.  Even if Jackson is superfluous to your stellar receiving corps at that point, he will still fetch you more on the trade market later in the season with other fantasy managers in need of a healthy wide receiver than he could possibly fetch you now.  On the other hand, if you wide receivers look week, trading Jackson won't get get you enough to make a significant improvement.  Instead, actively pursue a free agent gem; they're out there.  And, who knows... Jackson might just give in and come back to the playing field before week 10.  He's lost just about all his leverage at this point.

The most basic rule of stock investment also holds true for fantasy player investment: buy low, sell high.  Now is the time to sit on your hands.  Now is the time to wait and see.

TOMORROW'S POST: Week 1 Matchup

Sleeper Alert:

Wide receiver Patrick Crayton has been traded by the Cowboys to the Chargers in exchange for a seventh round pick.  Though Crayton became the fourth wide receiver in Dallas when Dez Bryant was drafted, he will likely start opposite Malcolm Floyd in San Diegeo and could have some serious fantasy value this season.  Keep an eye on him!

Sleeper Alert:

Clevelands's rookie running back Montario Hardesty suffered a season ending knee injury in the last game of the Brown's preseason.  Jerome Harrison has looked bad in preseason opening the door for Peyton Hillis and James Davis to potentially emerge as the starting back.  Pay attention to this situation at the start of the regular season.

Seek Thee Out The Diamond In The Rough!

We are exactly one week away from the start of the regular season, and I am already thinking about how I can make my fantasy team better, and you should be too!

Last year, Miles Austin, Steve Smith (NYG) and Rashard Mendenhall all went undrafted in my 10-team league.  As of today, their ADPs (average draft positions) on NFL.com are 23.2, 40.9, and 13.6 respectively, placing all three players in the first four rounds of a 12-team league's draft.  Though the fantasy experts stake their reputations on spotting these "sleepers" before the start of the season, a few will inevitably slip between the cracks in any draft.  In the first 1-4 weeks of the season, you will have the opportunity to recognize who this year's Miles Austin will be, and have the chance to add him to your fantasy roster.  In this post, I will tell you what you should be looking for when seeking out the diamond in the rough, and it all has to do with opportunity.

Look for the Openings:

One thing you should look for when searching for an undrafted break-out player is an opening created by the departure of a high-profile player.  You may remember that last year the New York Giants started their season without an established first option wide receiver.  Plaxico Burress was sent to prison for carrying a concealed weapon, and Amani Toomer was released by the Giants.  I knew at the start of the season that someone would have to emerge in the team's young receiver corps.  Both Steve Smith and Mario Manningham stepped up and had break out seasons, though Smith posted stronger numbers.

This season begins with equally uncertain situations at wide receiver for teams like the Denver Broncos after the departure of Brandon Marshall to Miami.  Fantasy experts and managers alike have recognized the opening in Denver, though there is no concensus as to who to target.  Jabar Gaffney, Eddie Royal, Brandon Lloyd, and Demaryius Thomas are all in the mix, and chances are that at least a couple of those players will be free agents when the season starts.  Other teams that don't have a clear cut go to guy at wide receiver include Oakland, Tampa Bay, Cleveland, and St. Louis.  Other teams, such as the Chicago Bears, don't have established elite wide receivers, but are being drafted as sleepers all the same.  Keep your eye on any openings at wide receiver on these teams.

Washington and Seattle have similar situations at running back, so keep your eye on any undrafted back on those teams, but remember, these situations will likely turn into backfield committees.

From a Bust to a Burst:

I'm ashamed to say it, but last year I drafted Roy Williams as my WR1.  Ouch!  But really, the mistake wasn't drafting Roy Williams.  My mistake was not recognizing and correcting my mistake.  For about four weeks, I placed Williams in my starting roster expecting him to become the guy in Dallas.  It never happened, and by the time I realized that Williams was poison, Austin had already been recruited to another team.

If you end up with a bust on your team, it's especially important that you recognize it in the early part of the season (say, no later than the end of week 3).  If your player is proving to be a disappointment, try to identifiy the player that will step up and fill that role and you can cut your losses and get on with your season.  Look sharp or someone else will take the sleeper before you do.  By the same token, don't limit your scouting to the busts on your team.  A rival manager's bust can also lead you to free agency gold.  Pick up the sleeper first and you have added strength to your roster, and secured a trade opportunity (said rival will be itching to take that player).

Injury:

In 2009, Willie Parker went down and Rashard Mendenhall got the nod.  He proved to be a solid fantasy starter.  Today, many fantasy managers hedge their bets and draft the high profile handcuff for their running backs, but it's a big investment for a player that probably won't see any play time.  Many of the better handcuffs, such as Thomas Jones, will remain undrafted in your league, and even a player you never heard of has the potential to step up and perform at a high level when the guy in front of him on the depth chart is injured.

Injuries at wide receiver can give an opportunity for another player to break out as well.  Keep an eye on injury reports throughout the season and you will have a chance to pick up some valuable sleepers.

The most valuable handcuffs: Thomas Jones, Ricky Williams, Tim Hightower, Willis McGahee, LaDainian Tomlinson

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Keep your eyes and ears open, especially in the first few weeks, and don't wait too long to make your move, and you will be rewarded, perhaps with a championship!  Stay tuned throughout the season, and I will give my thoughts on who to target as the surprise starter.

Critical Values 2010 Draft

First, a bit about my fantasy league, Critical Values...

Critical Values is a 12-team, fairly standard league.  Our only real customization is scoring passing TDs as 6 points instead of the standard 4 points, that and being a keeper league.  Starting this year, our league gives managers the option to keep up to three players.  In a nutshell, if you keep a player, you have to give up a draft pick two rounds higher than where that player was drafted the previous year.  There are two IR spots on a roster to allow managers to hold onto injured players so that they will still be there to "keep" at the end of the season.  The rest of the roster is, again, standard: QB RB RB WR WR WR TE K DEF BN BN BN BN BN BN

Critical Values is divided up into four divisions, each with three teams.  Every team plays every other division team twice in the regular season, and all non-division teams once.  The playoffs takes place during weeks 14-16.  Six teams advance to the playoffs, four division champs and two wildcards.  The top two seeds are rewarded with a first round bye in the playoffs.

Well, that's my league.  Now, here is how I did in this year's draft:

Pick 1-4: RB Maurice Jones-Drew (Jac)

As I was mock drafting this year, I decided that my dream draft spot was fourth overall because there were only four super-elite running backs in my eyes: Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew, and Ray Rice.  I wasn't too particular on who I would get (CJ or AP would be great, but I'm not too greedy) and I wanted a stronger second round pick than twelfth.  Well, I was lucky enough to get my wish and have the fourth pick, but what was really surprising was seeing the first pick pass up on a running back instead taking Andre Johnson.  Chris Johnson and Adrian Peterson went next and I decided to take Maurice Jones-Drew over Ray Rice.  As a Rutgers fan, I have to admit that Rice was rather appealing, but I made the smarter choice and picked the back who wouldn't be fighting with anyone else over goal-line carries.

Pick 2-9: QB Aaron Rodgers (GB)

Yeah, I couldn't believe he was there at the end of round two either, but there he was, and after Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, and Tom Brady had all been drafted too!  Going into the draft, I had planned on waiting on a quarterback unless the last elite quarterback (probably Matt Shaub) fell pretty deep.  But here I was staring down who I think is far and above the best fantasy quarterback right now and potentially a fantasy league MVP.  As I told everyone in the draft, I didn't make this pick, they made it for me.

Pick 3-4: WR DeSean Jackson (Phi)

The last running back I really love, Cedric Benson, is still on the board, but if I don't take a wide receiver now, I'll never catch up (that's why I wanted to hold off on a quarterback).  I took D-Jack over last year's surprise fantasy star, Miles Austin, much to the criticism of my brother (who is the commissioner of our league by the way).  But I stand by this pick.  I had Austin right up there with Jackson on my rankings, but something about Austin worries me.  I suppose I don't trust Tony Romo very much, and I don't like the fact that Roy Williams, and now Dez Bryant, will be fighting to get the ball.  Seeing the Cowboys' offensive line during preseason has confirmed to me that I made the right choice.

Pick 4-9: WR Mike Sims-Walker (Jac)

By now, Benson is gone which takes care of the second tier of running backs in my eyes.  I'm confident someone from the third tier will be around later, so I pick another receiver and avoid being too far behind in that scramble.  I expect a lot from Sims-Walker this year.  He has the talent, he has a quarterback who can get the ball to him, and he doesn't have any other big time receivers to contend with.  Sims-Walker is a solid WR2 with upside.  I'm hoping I see the upside this year!

Pick 5-4: RB Ronnie Brown (Mia)

Arian Foster was taken in the fourth round (and this was before he broke out in preseason).  You can imagine what the running back options look like right about now.  Brown is the last running back I have listed in my third tier still on the board, and though it's a round earlier than I'd like, I have to snag him.  He's a bit of a flight risk, having had season ending injuries in both of the last two years.  But when he's healthy, he's a solid RB2.  I had him on my team last year, and in ten healthy games, he averaged 12 points per game.  Not too shabby.  I'm hoping he shakes off the injury bug this year and solidifies my fantasy backfield.

Pick 6-9: TE Owen Daniels (Hou)

Somehow I knew this would happen: a choice between taking a better TE or WR3.  I think Daniels is falling under the radar this year for two reasons.  First, he was injured last year and missed a lot of the season causing many in the fantasy world to forget just how good he was.  Second, the comfortable depth at tight end this year means you don't have to grab one too early.  He may not be quite 100% for week one, but I expect him to start producing big numbers in no time.  Anyway, he was the last one of my first tier tight ends still on the board, and I think my options for a third wide receiver will still be strong seven picks later.

On a side note, Houston's offense looks terrifying this year in preseason, and the names to target are Matt Shaub, Andre Johson, Arian Foster, and Owen Daniels.

Pick 7-4: WR Santana Moss (Was)

Moss is one of the unfortunate fantasy stories in the NFL.  He has all the talent to be an elite wide receiver, but hasn't been in a very good situation in Washington.  Even so, Moss managed over 900 yards receiving last year, though his touchdwon total was lamentably low (I should know, I owned him).  However, with the addition of Donovan McNabb, I think that a 1,000 yard, 8 touchdown season for Moss is within reach.  I am a little nervous about the rest of this offense being good enough that Moss doesn't constantly get double covered, but the team has two good receiving tight ends, and will likely find a running game somewhere in that backfield.  If another wide receiver can have some chemistry with McNabb, Moss could be in for his best season in a long time.  I see Moss as a solid WR3, again, with some potential upside.

Pick 8-9: WR Dez Bryant (Dal)

I was eyeing C.J. Spiller at the start of this round.  Alas, he was grabbed by my brother just four picks earlier.  It's a shame, because Spiller has a real opportunity to be a star in Buffalo with Jackson and Lynch both out for a few weeks.  I don't trust the Bills to give Spiller any kind of support, but there's no denying his keeper value.  Since I'm looking for a backup here, I decide to go for the other big keeper value on the board, Dez Bryant.

In this established passing game, I don't expect Bryant to do more this year than have the occassional brilliant outing, and then disappear for a few weeks.  With some luck, he'll be productive during my starting wide receivers' bye weeks when it matters to me.  But this time next year, Bryant will be an early round fantasy draft selection.  Roy Williams will finally be gone, and Miles Austin and Bryant will be considered the most dangerous wide receiver duo since Fitzgerald and Boldin.  What I'm saying is, I'm guessing he'll be worth the sixth round pick it will cost to keep him next year.

Pick 9-4: RB Felix Jones (Dal)

By now I have secured all my offensive starters and have backed up my wide receivers with a strong stand-in option.  It's time to grab a backup running back.  Felix Jones is still available, and the fates have ordained that Jones will overtake Marion Barber this year in that backfield.  I don't expect a lot of consistency here because Dallas is, afterall, a three back committee (Jones, Barber, Choice).  With some luck, his value will rise during the course of the season.

Pick 10- 9: DEF Philadelphia

I have drafted my starting offense plus a backup wide receiver and running back.  I am now "allowed" to go after a defense according to my draft plan.  The New York Jets defense is no longer availabe, but as the consensus #1 defense of 2010, I hardly expected to grab them.  But at this point, a few defenses that I have ranked below Philadlphia were already taken, so I went with my second choice defense in the eleventh round.  In hindsight, Philly may have still been available one or two rounds later, but I would have otherwise taken another running back, and the best option left was still there for my next pick anyway.  I just hope I wasn't wrong to show Philly so much love.

Pick 11-4: RB Carnell Williams (TB)

What I like: Williams is the clear featured back, and with Derrick Ward getting the boot, there is no one there to compete with him.

What I don't like: The Bucs looked pretty lousy last year, and unless a magic spell has been placed on the NFC South that makes the basement team of one year rise to the top of the division the next, Tampa will stink again this year.  Then again... maybe the NFC South is enchanted...

Williams probably won't get the chance to start on my team unless I have injuries at that position.  He's past his prime and needs a strong offensive line and passing game to open it up enough for him to have a good year.  If I have to play him, he'll do something for me, but won't put up big numbers.  That's what I look for in a RB4, but make no mistake, he's on the fringe of my roster and will get dropped if a better option presents itself in free agency (I'm eyeing Chester Taylor right now who is still available in my league).

Pick 12-9: K David Akers (Phi)

I broke a cardinal rule of the fantasy experts by drafting a kicker this early, but all three of the players I took in the last rounds were the guys I would have taken anyway.  So, no harm no fowl I guess.  If it's possible to predict who will have a strong year at kicker and Akers, one of my top choices this year, does well, I'll be happy I made this move.  On the other hand, it might have been a mistake taking the Philadelphia kicker and defense as both will have a bye the same week, but I'll worry about that when it happens.

Pick 13-4: QB Chad Henne (Mia)

I can't say that I love this pick (having Roethlisberger as my backup quarterback would have been nice) but I do like it a lot.  With the addition of Brandon Marshall, I think Miami's new quarterback could be in for a surprising season.  He showed a of poise last year in my opinion, and with a strong running game and defense to lean on, he could develop quickly.  If he emerges as a fantasy starter, he has some definite keeper value for an eleventh round pick next year.  If he proves to be no more than a spot-starter, I think he's still a good option playing against Tennessee when Rodgers has his bye.  In short, this is a low risk high reward pick, but if Rodgers gets hurt, I'm in trouble.

Pick 14-9: TE Chris Cooley (Was)

Cooley is a solid backup tight end.  I'll likely start him week one since Owen Daniels is coming back from surgery, and obviously he will stand in for Daniels' bye.  Otherwise, he will probably only see action with my team if Daniels gets hurt, but if that happens, I think Cooley is a solid substitution.  He will have to share catches with Fred Davis, but McNabb will depend on his tight ends a lot this year to bail him out when Moss can't get open.

Pick 15-4: RB Ben Tate (Hou) - IR

I planned on making this pick since about a week before my draft when Tate got injured and was placed on IR.  He could be money as a keeper, and there's no arguing with the thirteenth round pick price it will cost me to hold on to him next year.  He immediately went to one of my IR spots, so he won't even take up space on my roster.  Finally, I decided to do this because I planned on seeking out a wide receiver sleeper from free agency early in the season.  Last year saw the emergence of players like Miles Austin and Steve Smith (both went undrafted in my league) and I suspect that there will be more surprise players at that position again this year.

Free Agency Acquisition: WR Mike Williams (TB)

As of week three in the preseason, it looks like Williams will be the guy in Tampa Bay.  If Tampa is as bad as I think they will be this year, that doesn't count for much.  But there is a chance that Williams will be one of this year's surprise wide receivers.  I will keep my eyes open in the first few weeks of the season and grab someone else if I see something special.  I really hope I succeed at picking up a true wide receiver sleeper because if I do, not only will it help solidify my receiving corps, but I will have another keeper for next year.

So... that's my 2010 fantasy team.  If there are any readers out there, now is the time to make your presence known.  What do you think of my team?  Is there anything I should have done differently?

If you would like to see the complete draft click "Read more" just below (I'm NY Foot Soldiers).  Cheers!