We are now past the two week mark in the football season. Ever hear the phrase "a little knowlege is a dangerous thing?" Well, that's exactly where we all are at this point. In two weeks, we have been given just enough information to start drawing conclusions, but not enough to feel confident in them. This is the time when you can make a risky move. It's a window that will close fairly quickly, because in a few short weeks, we will all have more information and will be more comfortable with our evaluations. So, if you're thinking about trading Santana Moss for Shonn Greene, now's the time to do it, but be careful or you could get burned! Here are a few rules when considering high risk, high reward changes to your fantasy roster:
1) Don't Mess With Success
If you believed your team was championship bound when you first drafted it and have done spectacularly well in the first two weeks, then now is not the time to take risks. I'm not saying you shouldn't explore ways to strengthen your already stunning roster, but you shouldn't roll the dice to do it.
Players like Tom Brady and Maurice Jones-Drew are proven fantasy players. Despite how they may have performed in the first two weeks, you don't want to take any risks with a player like that. Remember, it's about high risk, high reward. Trading Aaron Rodgers for Michael Vick will be close to even if you're lucky, and it's likely that you'll get burned. Trust those players that deserve your trust and resist the urge to do something reckless. A lot of novice fantasy managers make their biggest mistakes at this time of the season. Don't be one of them.
2) Address Your Needs
So, you expect that Shonn Greene will ultimately live up to his pre-draft expectations, and you plan on making a modest trade to acquire him while the price is low. That's not a bad idea, if you need help at that position. If, however, you already have Chris Johnson, Arian Foster, and Jahvid Best, you'd be crazy to take a risk like that. Even if it pays off, all that you've given yourself is a solid backup or trade fodder. On the other hand, when your wide receivers look thin later on in the season, you might wish you hadn't given up Santana Moss after all.
There's nothing wrong with taking risks, but if you don't address a need your fantasy team has, then you aren't maximizing the reward if your gamble pays off.
3) Buy Low, Sell High
My earlier example of going after Shonn Greene is a great one here. Risky week two moves are all about trading away a player that you feel has overperformed for a player that has underperformed. If you're right, then you can make a huge upgrade to your fantasy roster. If you're wrong, however, then you just caught a falling knife. But if you were clever, then at least you didn't give up a rising star to do it. If you can spot a player on your roster who has done more in the first two weeks than you believe he will do for the rest of the season, you can minimize your risk by unloading a player who you believe won't bring you much success down the road.
4) Be Confident
If you feel unsure that a move is the right one, don't make it. Championships aren't won but being reckless. You should feel good about any player you're acquiring and not particularly good about any player you let go. You should believe that the risk is worth the reward, and that you need to take a risk or two to put yourself into contention.
5) Be Decisive
Now's the time to do it. In a couple of weeks, everyone will know enough to avoid making a costly mistake, and the chance to buy someone cheep will be over.
Once you make a trade, or drop one player for another, you're invested. If your new fantasy player doesn't immediately start to perform, you should be patient. He probably won't fetch you much on the trade market any way. Don't be the fool who acquired Shonn Greene, dropped him two weeks later, and saw him break out in week 6 and end up on someone else's roster. If you need to take the risk and you could afford to do so, then you can afford to wait to see if it pays off.
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Follow these rules when rolling the dice and you can decrease the chance of rolling a snake-eyes that ruins your entire season. I urge anyone reading this to be careful, smart, and decisive when making any roster move, no matter how risky or safe it is. Above all else, follow your instincts. You are the one managing your fantasy team, not the guy who's advice you're reading online. It's your team and you're the only one who can lead it to victory.
If anyone is considering making a risky move and would like my input, feel free to hit up the comments. Good luck everyone!
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