Monday, September 13, 2010

1st and 15

For most fantasy players: one down fifteen to go.  But what have we really learned after fourteen football games?  In some cases, our suspicions have been confirmed--Arian Foster is for real.  In other cases, we are left with some serious doubts.  Here are the big question marks as I see them after our first football Sunday and whether they are cause for concern or not.

Cause For Concern

Tony Romo - Dallas, we have a problem!  The worry surrounding the Cowboys' offensive line after the preseason was well founded.  The o-line didn't just look bad against the Redskins on Sunday night, it clearly made Tony Romo uncomfortable.  Romo couldn't wait to get rid of the football in the face of Washington's pass rush.  If Romo is continually "rushed" into making bad decisions this year against some dominant pass rushes (there are more than a couple in the NFC east) owners of the marquee quarterback may have more interceptions to look forward to than touchdowns.  Owners of Dallas' other offensive fantasy stars shouldn't be worried, unless Romo gets hurt.

Kevin Kolb - When Kolb faced off against the Packers on Sunday, he didn't look good, he got injured, and his replacement played pretty well.  Though Andy Reid should be committed to Kolb, the winds can change quickly in Philadelphia.  Kolb owners should pick up Vick as a handcuff (at least until Kolb returns from his injury) if they don't already have another starter-worthy quarterback on their rosters.

C.J. Spiller - Spiller began creating a lot of fantasy buzz when fellow running backs Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson got hurt in the preseason, and Spiller started playing well.  Reality check: 1) Spiller looked good during the preseason against second and third string players.  2) Spiller plays for the Buffalo Bills, easily one of the worst teams of 2010.  Playing for a team that has a weak offensive line and no passing game to speak of doesn't bode will for a running back who isn't Barry Sanders.  3) Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch are coming back, and they will get their share of the touches.  If you drafted Spiller as a starting running back, you should be concerned after seeing his production against a starting defense.  I recommend shopping him on the trade market to see what bounces back.  Spiller may be a decent stand-in if he has a good matchup, but he should not be relied upon on a weekly basis in any format.

Matthew Stafford - If Stafford is more than a backup for a bye and injuries, you have good reason to be concerned.  Stafford sustained a shoulder injury to his throwing arm in Sunday's loss to the Bears.  He will reportedly be out for 4-6 weeks.  With Stafford missing that much playing time and practice, how sharp can he be upon his return, even if his arm is fully healed?  Unless you are planning on holding onto Stafford in a keeper league, you may not want to wait too long before dropping him if you can find a suitable replacement.

Don't Panic

Calvin Johnson - Bad news for Stafford is bad news for Johnson, but now is hardly the time to panic for Megatron owners.  Johnson will have some tough matchups in the next few weeks when Stafford is on the sideline, but he is still one of the most valuable wide receivers in the fantasy world, and will be there for you down the stretch of the season when you need him.  And don't worry about that "dropped pass" that he had in the end zone.  If you can't get a fair value out of trading Johnson, don't even think about it.

Matt Schaub - Right now there are some Schaub (and Andre Johnson) owners who are worried that the Texans new found running game will leave Schaub out in the fantasy cold.  Believe me, Arian Foster's success is good news for Schaub.  With a more balanced attack, Schaub should get more time in the pocket, and have an easier time finding an open receiver.  The receivers themselves will see lighter coverage as opposing defenses commit more players to stopping the run.  Also, with Owen Daniels' return, Schaub will get his opportunities to pass in the red zone, so don't think that Foster will steal away all of his touchdowns either.  Expect Schaub to bounce back as soon as defenses start worrying about the Texans' running game.

Mike Sims-Walker - Sims-Walker didn't record a single catch in Jacksonville's 24-17 win over the Broncos, but chalk that up to a bad matchup.  This should remind us fantasy owners that we should consider starting a mediocre wide receiver with a favorable matchup over the stud playing against a shut-down corner.  And while we're on the subject, don't panic over any wide receiver who had a quiet day because he was playing a tough matchup.

Frank Gore - It's frustrating for fantasy owners, but sometimes running backs just get off to a slow start.  It can be frightening when your first-round draft choice under performs in the first week, but if you're thinking of trading Gore for Darren McFadden or Ahmad Bradshaw, you better sit on your hands for a week before you do something you'll regret!

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