Week 1: Picks

In addition to playing fantasy football, I play in a pickem league (where you select who you think will win each game every week) and a survival league (select one team every week that you think will win its matchup--you are out when you get one wrong and you cannot pick the same team twice). You can find all three football games on Yahoo!

Every week, I will give my football picks along with my thoughts regarding any particularly interesting matchups. As always, you should feel free to open up a discussion with comments. Here are this week's matchups with my picks in blue, and my survival pick in purple.

New Orleans vs. Minnesota
A rematch of last year's NFC championship. I like the Saints to repeat their win while Favre struggles to find new targets in the passing game.

Buffalo vs. Miami
C.J. Spiller is the only thing the Bills have going for them. The well-rounded Dolphins are my survival pick of the week.

Chicago vs. Detroit

Tennessee vs. Oakland

New England vs. Cincinnati
Tom Brady is still an elite quarterback and Randy Moss is still an elite wide receiver. Welker will be there to help in the short passing game, but with a weak defense and undefined running game, the Patriots have become 1-dimensional. The Bengals are anything but.

New York Giants vs. Carolina

Pittsburgh vs. Atlanta
The Steelers will lean on their running game and defense, rejuvenated by the return of Troy Polomalu. Dixon avoids making any big mistakes which is enough to win a close one against the Falcons.

Tampa Bay vs. Cleveland

Jacksonville vs. Denver

Houston vs. Indianapolis
I really like Houston this year, but as they spend the year figuring out just how good they really are, the Colts already know how good they are (having won at least 12 games for the last seven years). The Colts give Houston a lesson.

St. Louis vs. Arizona
The Cardinals are about to learn just how much they needed Kurt Warner to be a playoff team. The loss of Boldin just makes matters worse as Fitzgerald will see double coverage all day.

Philadelphia vs. Green Bay

Seattle vs. San Francisco

Washington vs. Dallas
The Cowboys will be in big trouble this season until they solve their offensive line issues. I actually wouldn't be at all surprised if Washington walked away with a win here, but I think the Cowboys slip through.

New York Jets vs. Baltimore
This may be the most intriguing matchup of the week as Rex Ryan takes on his old team. The Ravens are one of the elite teams in the AFC this year, but early growing pains for this offense will be exacerbated as they face the Jets' smothering defense. Mark Sanchez has to avoid turnovers to seal the deal.

Kansas City vs. San Diego

How I See It

My 2010 NFL Power Rankings

Playoff Berths:

AFC                                                                             NFC

East - Jets                                                                  East - Cowboys

North - Ravens                                                        North - Packers

West - Chargers                                                       West - 49ers

South - Colts                                                             South - Saints

Wildcards - Texans, Bengals                              Wildcards - Vikings, Falcons

Superbowl:

Packers vs. Colts (Packers win)

The Vincent Jackson Dilemma

Just a few weeks ago, Vincent Jackson was viewed as one of the elite wide receivers in the world of fantasy football.  That was before Jackson was suspended for an additonal three weeks (bringing his total suspension to six weeks) and had a potential trade blocked by the San Diego Chargers.  Unfortunately, it wasn't before many fantasy leagues held their drafts for 2010, putting managers in the uncomfortable position of owning Jackson, a comodoty whose fantasy value has reached rock bottom.

Most recently, Jackson's fantasy value has taken a further plunge as all 32 teams in the NFL have finalized their rosters for the season.  With T.J. Houshmandzadeh accepting a minimum contract to play with the Ravens, how much interest can their possibly be for Jackson at this point, and with the Chargers blocking any attempt to be traded, does it even matter?  Further, the Chargers' acquisition of Patrick Crayton shows that they are prepared to move on without Jackson and likely will not give in to his contract demands, and let's face it, in the unspectacular AFC West, the Chargers don't exactly need Jackson to win the division.

So yes, all signs indicate that Jackson will continue his holdout, will not get the contract he is seeking from the Chargers, and will not get traded.  But make no mistake, trading Jackson now would be a mistake.  Here are the reasons why you should keep V.J. if you have him, and might even want to consider trading for him if you don't.

Jackson will play weeks 10-16 this season.  If he doesn't, he will not accrue another year towards free-agency, and that would be a disaster for him.  Additionally, Jackson will have every incentive to play hard in those games, as they will be his only chance to make a case for deserving a bigger contract before the 2011 season.  If you can keep your fantasy team aimed at the playoffs until Jackson's return, you will be rewarded with a clear WR1 who not only will play hard, but will be healthy.  Even if Jackson is superfluous to your stellar receiving corps at that point, he will still fetch you more on the trade market later in the season with other fantasy managers in need of a healthy wide receiver than he could possibly fetch you now.  On the other hand, if you wide receivers look week, trading Jackson won't get get you enough to make a significant improvement.  Instead, actively pursue a free agent gem; they're out there.  And, who knows... Jackson might just give in and come back to the playing field before week 10.  He's lost just about all his leverage at this point.

The most basic rule of stock investment also holds true for fantasy player investment: buy low, sell high.  Now is the time to sit on your hands.  Now is the time to wait and see.

TOMORROW'S POST: Week 1 Matchup

Sleeper Alert:

Wide receiver Patrick Crayton has been traded by the Cowboys to the Chargers in exchange for a seventh round pick.  Though Crayton became the fourth wide receiver in Dallas when Dez Bryant was drafted, he will likely start opposite Malcolm Floyd in San Diegeo and could have some serious fantasy value this season.  Keep an eye on him!

Sleeper Alert:

Clevelands's rookie running back Montario Hardesty suffered a season ending knee injury in the last game of the Brown's preseason.  Jerome Harrison has looked bad in preseason opening the door for Peyton Hillis and James Davis to potentially emerge as the starting back.  Pay attention to this situation at the start of the regular season.

Seek Thee Out The Diamond In The Rough!

We are exactly one week away from the start of the regular season, and I am already thinking about how I can make my fantasy team better, and you should be too!

Last year, Miles Austin, Steve Smith (NYG) and Rashard Mendenhall all went undrafted in my 10-team league.  As of today, their ADPs (average draft positions) on NFL.com are 23.2, 40.9, and 13.6 respectively, placing all three players in the first four rounds of a 12-team league's draft.  Though the fantasy experts stake their reputations on spotting these "sleepers" before the start of the season, a few will inevitably slip between the cracks in any draft.  In the first 1-4 weeks of the season, you will have the opportunity to recognize who this year's Miles Austin will be, and have the chance to add him to your fantasy roster.  In this post, I will tell you what you should be looking for when seeking out the diamond in the rough, and it all has to do with opportunity.

Look for the Openings:

One thing you should look for when searching for an undrafted break-out player is an opening created by the departure of a high-profile player.  You may remember that last year the New York Giants started their season without an established first option wide receiver.  Plaxico Burress was sent to prison for carrying a concealed weapon, and Amani Toomer was released by the Giants.  I knew at the start of the season that someone would have to emerge in the team's young receiver corps.  Both Steve Smith and Mario Manningham stepped up and had break out seasons, though Smith posted stronger numbers.

This season begins with equally uncertain situations at wide receiver for teams like the Denver Broncos after the departure of Brandon Marshall to Miami.  Fantasy experts and managers alike have recognized the opening in Denver, though there is no concensus as to who to target.  Jabar Gaffney, Eddie Royal, Brandon Lloyd, and Demaryius Thomas are all in the mix, and chances are that at least a couple of those players will be free agents when the season starts.  Other teams that don't have a clear cut go to guy at wide receiver include Oakland, Tampa Bay, Cleveland, and St. Louis.  Other teams, such as the Chicago Bears, don't have established elite wide receivers, but are being drafted as sleepers all the same.  Keep your eye on any openings at wide receiver on these teams.

Washington and Seattle have similar situations at running back, so keep your eye on any undrafted back on those teams, but remember, these situations will likely turn into backfield committees.

From a Bust to a Burst:

I'm ashamed to say it, but last year I drafted Roy Williams as my WR1.  Ouch!  But really, the mistake wasn't drafting Roy Williams.  My mistake was not recognizing and correcting my mistake.  For about four weeks, I placed Williams in my starting roster expecting him to become the guy in Dallas.  It never happened, and by the time I realized that Williams was poison, Austin had already been recruited to another team.

If you end up with a bust on your team, it's especially important that you recognize it in the early part of the season (say, no later than the end of week 3).  If your player is proving to be a disappointment, try to identifiy the player that will step up and fill that role and you can cut your losses and get on with your season.  Look sharp or someone else will take the sleeper before you do.  By the same token, don't limit your scouting to the busts on your team.  A rival manager's bust can also lead you to free agency gold.  Pick up the sleeper first and you have added strength to your roster, and secured a trade opportunity (said rival will be itching to take that player).

Injury:

In 2009, Willie Parker went down and Rashard Mendenhall got the nod.  He proved to be a solid fantasy starter.  Today, many fantasy managers hedge their bets and draft the high profile handcuff for their running backs, but it's a big investment for a player that probably won't see any play time.  Many of the better handcuffs, such as Thomas Jones, will remain undrafted in your league, and even a player you never heard of has the potential to step up and perform at a high level when the guy in front of him on the depth chart is injured.

Injuries at wide receiver can give an opportunity for another player to break out as well.  Keep an eye on injury reports throughout the season and you will have a chance to pick up some valuable sleepers.

The most valuable handcuffs: Thomas Jones, Ricky Williams, Tim Hightower, Willis McGahee, LaDainian Tomlinson

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Keep your eyes and ears open, especially in the first few weeks, and don't wait too long to make your move, and you will be rewarded, perhaps with a championship!  Stay tuned throughout the season, and I will give my thoughts on who to target as the surprise starter.

Critical Values 2010 Draft

First, a bit about my fantasy league, Critical Values...

Critical Values is a 12-team, fairly standard league.  Our only real customization is scoring passing TDs as 6 points instead of the standard 4 points, that and being a keeper league.  Starting this year, our league gives managers the option to keep up to three players.  In a nutshell, if you keep a player, you have to give up a draft pick two rounds higher than where that player was drafted the previous year.  There are two IR spots on a roster to allow managers to hold onto injured players so that they will still be there to "keep" at the end of the season.  The rest of the roster is, again, standard: QB RB RB WR WR WR TE K DEF BN BN BN BN BN BN

Critical Values is divided up into four divisions, each with three teams.  Every team plays every other division team twice in the regular season, and all non-division teams once.  The playoffs takes place during weeks 14-16.  Six teams advance to the playoffs, four division champs and two wildcards.  The top two seeds are rewarded with a first round bye in the playoffs.

Well, that's my league.  Now, here is how I did in this year's draft:

Pick 1-4: RB Maurice Jones-Drew (Jac)

As I was mock drafting this year, I decided that my dream draft spot was fourth overall because there were only four super-elite running backs in my eyes: Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew, and Ray Rice.  I wasn't too particular on who I would get (CJ or AP would be great, but I'm not too greedy) and I wanted a stronger second round pick than twelfth.  Well, I was lucky enough to get my wish and have the fourth pick, but what was really surprising was seeing the first pick pass up on a running back instead taking Andre Johnson.  Chris Johnson and Adrian Peterson went next and I decided to take Maurice Jones-Drew over Ray Rice.  As a Rutgers fan, I have to admit that Rice was rather appealing, but I made the smarter choice and picked the back who wouldn't be fighting with anyone else over goal-line carries.

Pick 2-9: QB Aaron Rodgers (GB)

Yeah, I couldn't believe he was there at the end of round two either, but there he was, and after Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, and Tom Brady had all been drafted too!  Going into the draft, I had planned on waiting on a quarterback unless the last elite quarterback (probably Matt Shaub) fell pretty deep.  But here I was staring down who I think is far and above the best fantasy quarterback right now and potentially a fantasy league MVP.  As I told everyone in the draft, I didn't make this pick, they made it for me.

Pick 3-4: WR DeSean Jackson (Phi)

The last running back I really love, Cedric Benson, is still on the board, but if I don't take a wide receiver now, I'll never catch up (that's why I wanted to hold off on a quarterback).  I took D-Jack over last year's surprise fantasy star, Miles Austin, much to the criticism of my brother (who is the commissioner of our league by the way).  But I stand by this pick.  I had Austin right up there with Jackson on my rankings, but something about Austin worries me.  I suppose I don't trust Tony Romo very much, and I don't like the fact that Roy Williams, and now Dez Bryant, will be fighting to get the ball.  Seeing the Cowboys' offensive line during preseason has confirmed to me that I made the right choice.

Pick 4-9: WR Mike Sims-Walker (Jac)

By now, Benson is gone which takes care of the second tier of running backs in my eyes.  I'm confident someone from the third tier will be around later, so I pick another receiver and avoid being too far behind in that scramble.  I expect a lot from Sims-Walker this year.  He has the talent, he has a quarterback who can get the ball to him, and he doesn't have any other big time receivers to contend with.  Sims-Walker is a solid WR2 with upside.  I'm hoping I see the upside this year!

Pick 5-4: RB Ronnie Brown (Mia)

Arian Foster was taken in the fourth round (and this was before he broke out in preseason).  You can imagine what the running back options look like right about now.  Brown is the last running back I have listed in my third tier still on the board, and though it's a round earlier than I'd like, I have to snag him.  He's a bit of a flight risk, having had season ending injuries in both of the last two years.  But when he's healthy, he's a solid RB2.  I had him on my team last year, and in ten healthy games, he averaged 12 points per game.  Not too shabby.  I'm hoping he shakes off the injury bug this year and solidifies my fantasy backfield.

Pick 6-9: TE Owen Daniels (Hou)

Somehow I knew this would happen: a choice between taking a better TE or WR3.  I think Daniels is falling under the radar this year for two reasons.  First, he was injured last year and missed a lot of the season causing many in the fantasy world to forget just how good he was.  Second, the comfortable depth at tight end this year means you don't have to grab one too early.  He may not be quite 100% for week one, but I expect him to start producing big numbers in no time.  Anyway, he was the last one of my first tier tight ends still on the board, and I think my options for a third wide receiver will still be strong seven picks later.

On a side note, Houston's offense looks terrifying this year in preseason, and the names to target are Matt Shaub, Andre Johson, Arian Foster, and Owen Daniels.

Pick 7-4: WR Santana Moss (Was)

Moss is one of the unfortunate fantasy stories in the NFL.  He has all the talent to be an elite wide receiver, but hasn't been in a very good situation in Washington.  Even so, Moss managed over 900 yards receiving last year, though his touchdwon total was lamentably low (I should know, I owned him).  However, with the addition of Donovan McNabb, I think that a 1,000 yard, 8 touchdown season for Moss is within reach.  I am a little nervous about the rest of this offense being good enough that Moss doesn't constantly get double covered, but the team has two good receiving tight ends, and will likely find a running game somewhere in that backfield.  If another wide receiver can have some chemistry with McNabb, Moss could be in for his best season in a long time.  I see Moss as a solid WR3, again, with some potential upside.

Pick 8-9: WR Dez Bryant (Dal)

I was eyeing C.J. Spiller at the start of this round.  Alas, he was grabbed by my brother just four picks earlier.  It's a shame, because Spiller has a real opportunity to be a star in Buffalo with Jackson and Lynch both out for a few weeks.  I don't trust the Bills to give Spiller any kind of support, but there's no denying his keeper value.  Since I'm looking for a backup here, I decide to go for the other big keeper value on the board, Dez Bryant.

In this established passing game, I don't expect Bryant to do more this year than have the occassional brilliant outing, and then disappear for a few weeks.  With some luck, he'll be productive during my starting wide receivers' bye weeks when it matters to me.  But this time next year, Bryant will be an early round fantasy draft selection.  Roy Williams will finally be gone, and Miles Austin and Bryant will be considered the most dangerous wide receiver duo since Fitzgerald and Boldin.  What I'm saying is, I'm guessing he'll be worth the sixth round pick it will cost to keep him next year.

Pick 9-4: RB Felix Jones (Dal)

By now I have secured all my offensive starters and have backed up my wide receivers with a strong stand-in option.  It's time to grab a backup running back.  Felix Jones is still available, and the fates have ordained that Jones will overtake Marion Barber this year in that backfield.  I don't expect a lot of consistency here because Dallas is, afterall, a three back committee (Jones, Barber, Choice).  With some luck, his value will rise during the course of the season.

Pick 10- 9: DEF Philadelphia

I have drafted my starting offense plus a backup wide receiver and running back.  I am now "allowed" to go after a defense according to my draft plan.  The New York Jets defense is no longer availabe, but as the consensus #1 defense of 2010, I hardly expected to grab them.  But at this point, a few defenses that I have ranked below Philadlphia were already taken, so I went with my second choice defense in the eleventh round.  In hindsight, Philly may have still been available one or two rounds later, but I would have otherwise taken another running back, and the best option left was still there for my next pick anyway.  I just hope I wasn't wrong to show Philly so much love.

Pick 11-4: RB Carnell Williams (TB)

What I like: Williams is the clear featured back, and with Derrick Ward getting the boot, there is no one there to compete with him.

What I don't like: The Bucs looked pretty lousy last year, and unless a magic spell has been placed on the NFC South that makes the basement team of one year rise to the top of the division the next, Tampa will stink again this year.  Then again... maybe the NFC South is enchanted...

Williams probably won't get the chance to start on my team unless I have injuries at that position.  He's past his prime and needs a strong offensive line and passing game to open it up enough for him to have a good year.  If I have to play him, he'll do something for me, but won't put up big numbers.  That's what I look for in a RB4, but make no mistake, he's on the fringe of my roster and will get dropped if a better option presents itself in free agency (I'm eyeing Chester Taylor right now who is still available in my league).

Pick 12-9: K David Akers (Phi)

I broke a cardinal rule of the fantasy experts by drafting a kicker this early, but all three of the players I took in the last rounds were the guys I would have taken anyway.  So, no harm no fowl I guess.  If it's possible to predict who will have a strong year at kicker and Akers, one of my top choices this year, does well, I'll be happy I made this move.  On the other hand, it might have been a mistake taking the Philadelphia kicker and defense as both will have a bye the same week, but I'll worry about that when it happens.

Pick 13-4: QB Chad Henne (Mia)

I can't say that I love this pick (having Roethlisberger as my backup quarterback would have been nice) but I do like it a lot.  With the addition of Brandon Marshall, I think Miami's new quarterback could be in for a surprising season.  He showed a of poise last year in my opinion, and with a strong running game and defense to lean on, he could develop quickly.  If he emerges as a fantasy starter, he has some definite keeper value for an eleventh round pick next year.  If he proves to be no more than a spot-starter, I think he's still a good option playing against Tennessee when Rodgers has his bye.  In short, this is a low risk high reward pick, but if Rodgers gets hurt, I'm in trouble.

Pick 14-9: TE Chris Cooley (Was)

Cooley is a solid backup tight end.  I'll likely start him week one since Owen Daniels is coming back from surgery, and obviously he will stand in for Daniels' bye.  Otherwise, he will probably only see action with my team if Daniels gets hurt, but if that happens, I think Cooley is a solid substitution.  He will have to share catches with Fred Davis, but McNabb will depend on his tight ends a lot this year to bail him out when Moss can't get open.

Pick 15-4: RB Ben Tate (Hou) - IR

I planned on making this pick since about a week before my draft when Tate got injured and was placed on IR.  He could be money as a keeper, and there's no arguing with the thirteenth round pick price it will cost me to hold on to him next year.  He immediately went to one of my IR spots, so he won't even take up space on my roster.  Finally, I decided to do this because I planned on seeking out a wide receiver sleeper from free agency early in the season.  Last year saw the emergence of players like Miles Austin and Steve Smith (both went undrafted in my league) and I suspect that there will be more surprise players at that position again this year.

Free Agency Acquisition: WR Mike Williams (TB)

As of week three in the preseason, it looks like Williams will be the guy in Tampa Bay.  If Tampa is as bad as I think they will be this year, that doesn't count for much.  But there is a chance that Williams will be one of this year's surprise wide receivers.  I will keep my eyes open in the first few weeks of the season and grab someone else if I see something special.  I really hope I succeed at picking up a true wide receiver sleeper because if I do, not only will it help solidify my receiving corps, but I will have another keeper for next year.

So... that's my 2010 fantasy team.  If there are any readers out there, now is the time to make your presence known.  What do you think of my team?  Is there anything I should have done differently?

If you would like to see the complete draft click "Read more" just below (I'm NY Foot Soldiers).  Cheers!