Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, and...

Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark

Barring injuries, we all know that wide receiver Reggie Wayne and tight end Dallas Clark will have tremendous fantasy value this year.  After all, Peyton Manning's offense is always among the most prolific.  However, since Marvin Harrison's retirement one year ago, fantasy managers have been looking to see who will fill the star wide receiver roll opposite Wayne in Indianapolis.  In 2009, it was believed that Anthony Gonzalez would be the other guy, but an injury cost him his golden opportunity, and Manning turned to Pierre Carçon and Austin Collie to pick up the slack.

Everyone seemed to agree that Carçon would be the other wide receiver in Indy to have significant fantasy value in 2010, but Collie's performance in week one (163 yrds, 1 TD) is giving us all pause.  Will it be Collie and not Carçon who achieves fantasy stardom?  The answer probably won't make anyone happy, but here's how I see it...

Austin Collie and Pierre Carçon

Peyton Manning clearly has a lot of confidence in both Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark when he needs someone to make a big play.  They are both talented veterans who have proven their worth to Mannning time and time again, and have developed invaluable chemistry with the league's best helmsman.  On the other hand, Carçon, Collie, and Gonzalez has each shown talent and developed good communication with their quarterback.  Manning has to trust each of these guys but none of them as much as he does Wayne or Clark.

The result of this scenario will end up being something like the situation in New Orleans where Drew Brees spreads the ball around too efficiently to make anyone other than himself and Marques Colston a fantasy star.  In 2010, when you hear Pierre Carçon, Austin Collie, or Anthony Gonzalez, think Robert Meachem and Devery Henderson.  All of these guys will have some spectacular weeks, but none of them will be reliable on a consistent basis unless injury puts them into a more prevalent roll.

Though you can't expect too much from any of the other wide receivers in Indianapolis, that doesn't mean they don't have any value.  Austin Collie owners should consider trading him at high value after his impressive performance last week, before he fantasy numbers come back to earth.  Carçon, and Gonzalez will likely have similar weeks in the near future, raising their respective values on the trade market.  Even if you can't unload your Indy WR, consider starting him based on your fantasy matchup in a given week.  If you are playing a daunting opponent, you may want to start a player like Collie who has the potential to put up huge numbers rather than someone like Santana Moss who will almost certainly put up solid numbers, but will probably not put up huge numbers.  Then rotate Moss back into the starting lineup when you play a weaker opponent and want to go for the sure thing.  Rotating all-or-nothing players with solid-but-unspectacular players can help you optimize wins and bring you to a championship.

Collie, Carçon, and to a lesser extent Carçon, are perfect examples of the all-or-nothing players and players who will fetch a lot a lot on the trade market after a big performance.  Treat them that way; none of them are Reggie Wayne in the fantasy world, or the real world.

1st and 15

For most fantasy players: one down fifteen to go.  But what have we really learned after fourteen football games?  In some cases, our suspicions have been confirmed--Arian Foster is for real.  In other cases, we are left with some serious doubts.  Here are the big question marks as I see them after our first football Sunday and whether they are cause for concern or not.

Cause For Concern

Tony Romo - Dallas, we have a problem!  The worry surrounding the Cowboys' offensive line after the preseason was well founded.  The o-line didn't just look bad against the Redskins on Sunday night, it clearly made Tony Romo uncomfortable.  Romo couldn't wait to get rid of the football in the face of Washington's pass rush.  If Romo is continually "rushed" into making bad decisions this year against some dominant pass rushes (there are more than a couple in the NFC east) owners of the marquee quarterback may have more interceptions to look forward to than touchdowns.  Owners of Dallas' other offensive fantasy stars shouldn't be worried, unless Romo gets hurt.

Kevin Kolb - When Kolb faced off against the Packers on Sunday, he didn't look good, he got injured, and his replacement played pretty well.  Though Andy Reid should be committed to Kolb, the winds can change quickly in Philadelphia.  Kolb owners should pick up Vick as a handcuff (at least until Kolb returns from his injury) if they don't already have another starter-worthy quarterback on their rosters.

C.J. Spiller - Spiller began creating a lot of fantasy buzz when fellow running backs Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson got hurt in the preseason, and Spiller started playing well.  Reality check: 1) Spiller looked good during the preseason against second and third string players.  2) Spiller plays for the Buffalo Bills, easily one of the worst teams of 2010.  Playing for a team that has a weak offensive line and no passing game to speak of doesn't bode will for a running back who isn't Barry Sanders.  3) Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch are coming back, and they will get their share of the touches.  If you drafted Spiller as a starting running back, you should be concerned after seeing his production against a starting defense.  I recommend shopping him on the trade market to see what bounces back.  Spiller may be a decent stand-in if he has a good matchup, but he should not be relied upon on a weekly basis in any format.

Matthew Stafford - If Stafford is more than a backup for a bye and injuries, you have good reason to be concerned.  Stafford sustained a shoulder injury to his throwing arm in Sunday's loss to the Bears.  He will reportedly be out for 4-6 weeks.  With Stafford missing that much playing time and practice, how sharp can he be upon his return, even if his arm is fully healed?  Unless you are planning on holding onto Stafford in a keeper league, you may not want to wait too long before dropping him if you can find a suitable replacement.

Don't Panic

Calvin Johnson - Bad news for Stafford is bad news for Johnson, but now is hardly the time to panic for Megatron owners.  Johnson will have some tough matchups in the next few weeks when Stafford is on the sideline, but he is still one of the most valuable wide receivers in the fantasy world, and will be there for you down the stretch of the season when you need him.  And don't worry about that "dropped pass" that he had in the end zone.  If you can't get a fair value out of trading Johnson, don't even think about it.

Matt Schaub - Right now there are some Schaub (and Andre Johnson) owners who are worried that the Texans new found running game will leave Schaub out in the fantasy cold.  Believe me, Arian Foster's success is good news for Schaub.  With a more balanced attack, Schaub should get more time in the pocket, and have an easier time finding an open receiver.  The receivers themselves will see lighter coverage as opposing defenses commit more players to stopping the run.  Also, with Owen Daniels' return, Schaub will get his opportunities to pass in the red zone, so don't think that Foster will steal away all of his touchdowns either.  Expect Schaub to bounce back as soon as defenses start worrying about the Texans' running game.

Mike Sims-Walker - Sims-Walker didn't record a single catch in Jacksonville's 24-17 win over the Broncos, but chalk that up to a bad matchup.  This should remind us fantasy owners that we should consider starting a mediocre wide receiver with a favorable matchup over the stud playing against a shut-down corner.  And while we're on the subject, don't panic over any wide receiver who had a quiet day because he was playing a tough matchup.

Frank Gore - It's frustrating for fantasy owners, but sometimes running backs just get off to a slow start.  It can be frightening when your first-round draft choice under performs in the first week, but if you're thinking of trading Gore for Darren McFadden or Ahmad Bradshaw, you better sit on your hands for a week before you do something you'll regret!

The Vincent Jackson Dilemma

Just a few weeks ago, Vincent Jackson was viewed as one of the elite wide receivers in the world of fantasy football.  That was before Jackson was suspended for an additonal three weeks (bringing his total suspension to six weeks) and had a potential trade blocked by the San Diego Chargers.  Unfortunately, it wasn't before many fantasy leagues held their drafts for 2010, putting managers in the uncomfortable position of owning Jackson, a comodoty whose fantasy value has reached rock bottom.

Most recently, Jackson's fantasy value has taken a further plunge as all 32 teams in the NFL have finalized their rosters for the season.  With T.J. Houshmandzadeh accepting a minimum contract to play with the Ravens, how much interest can their possibly be for Jackson at this point, and with the Chargers blocking any attempt to be traded, does it even matter?  Further, the Chargers' acquisition of Patrick Crayton shows that they are prepared to move on without Jackson and likely will not give in to his contract demands, and let's face it, in the unspectacular AFC West, the Chargers don't exactly need Jackson to win the division.

So yes, all signs indicate that Jackson will continue his holdout, will not get the contract he is seeking from the Chargers, and will not get traded.  But make no mistake, trading Jackson now would be a mistake.  Here are the reasons why you should keep V.J. if you have him, and might even want to consider trading for him if you don't.

Jackson will play weeks 10-16 this season.  If he doesn't, he will not accrue another year towards free-agency, and that would be a disaster for him.  Additionally, Jackson will have every incentive to play hard in those games, as they will be his only chance to make a case for deserving a bigger contract before the 2011 season.  If you can keep your fantasy team aimed at the playoffs until Jackson's return, you will be rewarded with a clear WR1 who not only will play hard, but will be healthy.  Even if Jackson is superfluous to your stellar receiving corps at that point, he will still fetch you more on the trade market later in the season with other fantasy managers in need of a healthy wide receiver than he could possibly fetch you now.  On the other hand, if you wide receivers look week, trading Jackson won't get get you enough to make a significant improvement.  Instead, actively pursue a free agent gem; they're out there.  And, who knows... Jackson might just give in and come back to the playing field before week 10.  He's lost just about all his leverage at this point.

The most basic rule of stock investment also holds true for fantasy player investment: buy low, sell high.  Now is the time to sit on your hands.  Now is the time to wait and see.

TOMORROW'S POST: Week 1 Matchup