High Risk, High Reward

If you are serious about fantasy football, chances are that you've seen that phrase on more than one occassion.  Frank Gore and Ronnie Brown were high risk, high reward draft options because they are tremendous when they're healthy, but they both have a tendancy to get injured.  C.J. Spiller was called high risk, high reward because he was the best running back in his draft class going to the worst team in the NFL.  In the world of fantasy football, high risk, high reward moves can make or break your football team, and not just in your draft.

We are now past the two week mark in the football season.  Ever hear the phrase "a little knowlege is a dangerous thing?"  Well, that's exactly where we all are at this point.  In two weeks, we have been given just enough information to start drawing conclusions, but not enough to feel confident in them.  This is the time when you can make a risky move.  It's a window that will close fairly quickly, because in a few short weeks, we will all have more information and will be more comfortable with our evaluations.  So, if you're thinking about trading Santana Moss for Shonn Greene, now's the time to do it, but be careful or you could get burned!  Here are a few rules when considering high risk, high reward changes to your fantasy roster:

1) Don't Mess With Success

If you believed your team was championship bound when you first drafted it and have done spectacularly well in the first two weeks, then now is not the time to take risks.  I'm not saying you shouldn't explore ways to strengthen your already stunning roster, but you shouldn't roll the dice to do it.

Players like Tom Brady and Maurice Jones-Drew are proven fantasy players.  Despite how they may have performed in the first two weeks, you don't want to take any risks with a player like that.  Remember, it's about high risk, high reward.  Trading Aaron Rodgers for Michael Vick will be close to even if you're lucky, and it's likely that you'll get burned.  Trust those players that deserve your trust and resist the urge to do something reckless.  A lot of novice fantasy managers make their biggest mistakes at this time of the season.  Don't be one of them.

2) Address Your Needs

So, you expect that Shonn Greene will ultimately live up to his pre-draft expectations, and you plan on making a modest trade to acquire him while the price is low.  That's not a bad idea, if you need help at that position.  If, however, you already have Chris Johnson, Arian Foster, and Jahvid Best, you'd be crazy to take a risk like that.  Even if it pays off, all that you've given yourself is a solid backup or trade fodder.  On the other hand, when your wide receivers look thin later on in the season, you might wish you hadn't given up Santana Moss after all.

There's nothing wrong with taking risks, but if you don't address a need your fantasy team has, then you aren't maximizing the reward if your gamble pays off.

3)  Buy Low, Sell High

My earlier example of going after Shonn Greene is a great one here.  Risky week two moves are all about trading away a player that you feel has overperformed for a player that has underperformed.  If you're right, then you can make a huge upgrade to your fantasy roster.  If you're wrong, however, then you just caught a falling knife.  But if you were clever, then at least you didn't give up a rising star to do it.  If you can spot a player on your roster who has done more in the first two weeks than you believe he will do for the rest of the season, you can minimize your risk by unloading a player who you believe won't bring you much success down the road.

4)  Be Confident

If you feel unsure that a move is the right one, don't make it.  Championships aren't won but being reckless.  You should feel good about any player you're acquiring and not particularly good about any player you let go.  You should believe that the risk is worth the reward, and that you need to take a risk or two to put yourself into contention.

5)  Be Decisive

Now's the time to do it.  In a couple of weeks, everyone will know enough to avoid making a costly mistake, and the chance to buy someone cheep will be over.

Once you make a trade, or drop one player for another, you're invested.  If your new fantasy player doesn't immediately start to perform, you should be patient.  He probably won't fetch you much on the trade market any way.  Don't be the fool who acquired Shonn Greene, dropped him two weeks later, and saw him break out in week 6 and end up on someone else's roster.  If you need to take the risk and you could afford to do so, then you can afford to wait to see if it pays off.

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Follow these rules when rolling the dice and you can decrease the chance of rolling a snake-eyes that ruins your entire season.  I urge anyone reading this to be careful, smart, and decisive when making any roster move, no matter how risky or safe it is.  Above all else, follow your instincts.  You are the one managing your fantasy team, not the guy who's advice you're reading online.  It's your team and you're the only one who can lead it to victory.

If anyone is considering making a risky move and would like my input, feel free to hit up the comments.  Good luck everyone!

Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, and...

Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark

Barring injuries, we all know that wide receiver Reggie Wayne and tight end Dallas Clark will have tremendous fantasy value this year.  After all, Peyton Manning's offense is always among the most prolific.  However, since Marvin Harrison's retirement one year ago, fantasy managers have been looking to see who will fill the star wide receiver roll opposite Wayne in Indianapolis.  In 2009, it was believed that Anthony Gonzalez would be the other guy, but an injury cost him his golden opportunity, and Manning turned to Pierre Carçon and Austin Collie to pick up the slack.

Everyone seemed to agree that Carçon would be the other wide receiver in Indy to have significant fantasy value in 2010, but Collie's performance in week one (163 yrds, 1 TD) is giving us all pause.  Will it be Collie and not Carçon who achieves fantasy stardom?  The answer probably won't make anyone happy, but here's how I see it...

Austin Collie and Pierre Carçon

Peyton Manning clearly has a lot of confidence in both Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark when he needs someone to make a big play.  They are both talented veterans who have proven their worth to Mannning time and time again, and have developed invaluable chemistry with the league's best helmsman.  On the other hand, Carçon, Collie, and Gonzalez has each shown talent and developed good communication with their quarterback.  Manning has to trust each of these guys but none of them as much as he does Wayne or Clark.

The result of this scenario will end up being something like the situation in New Orleans where Drew Brees spreads the ball around too efficiently to make anyone other than himself and Marques Colston a fantasy star.  In 2010, when you hear Pierre Carçon, Austin Collie, or Anthony Gonzalez, think Robert Meachem and Devery Henderson.  All of these guys will have some spectacular weeks, but none of them will be reliable on a consistent basis unless injury puts them into a more prevalent roll.

Though you can't expect too much from any of the other wide receivers in Indianapolis, that doesn't mean they don't have any value.  Austin Collie owners should consider trading him at high value after his impressive performance last week, before he fantasy numbers come back to earth.  Carçon, and Gonzalez will likely have similar weeks in the near future, raising their respective values on the trade market.  Even if you can't unload your Indy WR, consider starting him based on your fantasy matchup in a given week.  If you are playing a daunting opponent, you may want to start a player like Collie who has the potential to put up huge numbers rather than someone like Santana Moss who will almost certainly put up solid numbers, but will probably not put up huge numbers.  Then rotate Moss back into the starting lineup when you play a weaker opponent and want to go for the sure thing.  Rotating all-or-nothing players with solid-but-unspectacular players can help you optimize wins and bring you to a championship.

Collie, Carçon, and to a lesser extent Carçon, are perfect examples of the all-or-nothing players and players who will fetch a lot a lot on the trade market after a big performance.  Treat them that way; none of them are Reggie Wayne in the fantasy world, or the real world.

The Vincent Jackson Dilemma

Just a few weeks ago, Vincent Jackson was viewed as one of the elite wide receivers in the world of fantasy football.  That was before Jackson was suspended for an additonal three weeks (bringing his total suspension to six weeks) and had a potential trade blocked by the San Diego Chargers.  Unfortunately, it wasn't before many fantasy leagues held their drafts for 2010, putting managers in the uncomfortable position of owning Jackson, a comodoty whose fantasy value has reached rock bottom.

Most recently, Jackson's fantasy value has taken a further plunge as all 32 teams in the NFL have finalized their rosters for the season.  With T.J. Houshmandzadeh accepting a minimum contract to play with the Ravens, how much interest can their possibly be for Jackson at this point, and with the Chargers blocking any attempt to be traded, does it even matter?  Further, the Chargers' acquisition of Patrick Crayton shows that they are prepared to move on without Jackson and likely will not give in to his contract demands, and let's face it, in the unspectacular AFC West, the Chargers don't exactly need Jackson to win the division.

So yes, all signs indicate that Jackson will continue his holdout, will not get the contract he is seeking from the Chargers, and will not get traded.  But make no mistake, trading Jackson now would be a mistake.  Here are the reasons why you should keep V.J. if you have him, and might even want to consider trading for him if you don't.

Jackson will play weeks 10-16 this season.  If he doesn't, he will not accrue another year towards free-agency, and that would be a disaster for him.  Additionally, Jackson will have every incentive to play hard in those games, as they will be his only chance to make a case for deserving a bigger contract before the 2011 season.  If you can keep your fantasy team aimed at the playoffs until Jackson's return, you will be rewarded with a clear WR1 who not only will play hard, but will be healthy.  Even if Jackson is superfluous to your stellar receiving corps at that point, he will still fetch you more on the trade market later in the season with other fantasy managers in need of a healthy wide receiver than he could possibly fetch you now.  On the other hand, if you wide receivers look week, trading Jackson won't get get you enough to make a significant improvement.  Instead, actively pursue a free agent gem; they're out there.  And, who knows... Jackson might just give in and come back to the playing field before week 10.  He's lost just about all his leverage at this point.

The most basic rule of stock investment also holds true for fantasy player investment: buy low, sell high.  Now is the time to sit on your hands.  Now is the time to wait and see.

TOMORROW'S POST: Week 1 Matchup