Critical Values 2010 Draft

First, a bit about my fantasy league, Critical Values...

Critical Values is a 12-team, fairly standard league.  Our only real customization is scoring passing TDs as 6 points instead of the standard 4 points, that and being a keeper league.  Starting this year, our league gives managers the option to keep up to three players.  In a nutshell, if you keep a player, you have to give up a draft pick two rounds higher than where that player was drafted the previous year.  There are two IR spots on a roster to allow managers to hold onto injured players so that they will still be there to "keep" at the end of the season.  The rest of the roster is, again, standard: QB RB RB WR WR WR TE K DEF BN BN BN BN BN BN

Critical Values is divided up into four divisions, each with three teams.  Every team plays every other division team twice in the regular season, and all non-division teams once.  The playoffs takes place during weeks 14-16.  Six teams advance to the playoffs, four division champs and two wildcards.  The top two seeds are rewarded with a first round bye in the playoffs.

Well, that's my league.  Now, here is how I did in this year's draft:

Pick 1-4: RB Maurice Jones-Drew (Jac)

As I was mock drafting this year, I decided that my dream draft spot was fourth overall because there were only four super-elite running backs in my eyes: Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew, and Ray Rice.  I wasn't too particular on who I would get (CJ or AP would be great, but I'm not too greedy) and I wanted a stronger second round pick than twelfth.  Well, I was lucky enough to get my wish and have the fourth pick, but what was really surprising was seeing the first pick pass up on a running back instead taking Andre Johnson.  Chris Johnson and Adrian Peterson went next and I decided to take Maurice Jones-Drew over Ray Rice.  As a Rutgers fan, I have to admit that Rice was rather appealing, but I made the smarter choice and picked the back who wouldn't be fighting with anyone else over goal-line carries.

Pick 2-9: QB Aaron Rodgers (GB)

Yeah, I couldn't believe he was there at the end of round two either, but there he was, and after Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, and Tom Brady had all been drafted too!  Going into the draft, I had planned on waiting on a quarterback unless the last elite quarterback (probably Matt Shaub) fell pretty deep.  But here I was staring down who I think is far and above the best fantasy quarterback right now and potentially a fantasy league MVP.  As I told everyone in the draft, I didn't make this pick, they made it for me.

Pick 3-4: WR DeSean Jackson (Phi)

The last running back I really love, Cedric Benson, is still on the board, but if I don't take a wide receiver now, I'll never catch up (that's why I wanted to hold off on a quarterback).  I took D-Jack over last year's surprise fantasy star, Miles Austin, much to the criticism of my brother (who is the commissioner of our league by the way).  But I stand by this pick.  I had Austin right up there with Jackson on my rankings, but something about Austin worries me.  I suppose I don't trust Tony Romo very much, and I don't like the fact that Roy Williams, and now Dez Bryant, will be fighting to get the ball.  Seeing the Cowboys' offensive line during preseason has confirmed to me that I made the right choice.

Pick 4-9: WR Mike Sims-Walker (Jac)

By now, Benson is gone which takes care of the second tier of running backs in my eyes.  I'm confident someone from the third tier will be around later, so I pick another receiver and avoid being too far behind in that scramble.  I expect a lot from Sims-Walker this year.  He has the talent, he has a quarterback who can get the ball to him, and he doesn't have any other big time receivers to contend with.  Sims-Walker is a solid WR2 with upside.  I'm hoping I see the upside this year!

Pick 5-4: RB Ronnie Brown (Mia)

Arian Foster was taken in the fourth round (and this was before he broke out in preseason).  You can imagine what the running back options look like right about now.  Brown is the last running back I have listed in my third tier still on the board, and though it's a round earlier than I'd like, I have to snag him.  He's a bit of a flight risk, having had season ending injuries in both of the last two years.  But when he's healthy, he's a solid RB2.  I had him on my team last year, and in ten healthy games, he averaged 12 points per game.  Not too shabby.  I'm hoping he shakes off the injury bug this year and solidifies my fantasy backfield.

Pick 6-9: TE Owen Daniels (Hou)

Somehow I knew this would happen: a choice between taking a better TE or WR3.  I think Daniels is falling under the radar this year for two reasons.  First, he was injured last year and missed a lot of the season causing many in the fantasy world to forget just how good he was.  Second, the comfortable depth at tight end this year means you don't have to grab one too early.  He may not be quite 100% for week one, but I expect him to start producing big numbers in no time.  Anyway, he was the last one of my first tier tight ends still on the board, and I think my options for a third wide receiver will still be strong seven picks later.

On a side note, Houston's offense looks terrifying this year in preseason, and the names to target are Matt Shaub, Andre Johson, Arian Foster, and Owen Daniels.

Pick 7-4: WR Santana Moss (Was)

Moss is one of the unfortunate fantasy stories in the NFL.  He has all the talent to be an elite wide receiver, but hasn't been in a very good situation in Washington.  Even so, Moss managed over 900 yards receiving last year, though his touchdwon total was lamentably low (I should know, I owned him).  However, with the addition of Donovan McNabb, I think that a 1,000 yard, 8 touchdown season for Moss is within reach.  I am a little nervous about the rest of this offense being good enough that Moss doesn't constantly get double covered, but the team has two good receiving tight ends, and will likely find a running game somewhere in that backfield.  If another wide receiver can have some chemistry with McNabb, Moss could be in for his best season in a long time.  I see Moss as a solid WR3, again, with some potential upside.

Pick 8-9: WR Dez Bryant (Dal)

I was eyeing C.J. Spiller at the start of this round.  Alas, he was grabbed by my brother just four picks earlier.  It's a shame, because Spiller has a real opportunity to be a star in Buffalo with Jackson and Lynch both out for a few weeks.  I don't trust the Bills to give Spiller any kind of support, but there's no denying his keeper value.  Since I'm looking for a backup here, I decide to go for the other big keeper value on the board, Dez Bryant.

In this established passing game, I don't expect Bryant to do more this year than have the occassional brilliant outing, and then disappear for a few weeks.  With some luck, he'll be productive during my starting wide receivers' bye weeks when it matters to me.  But this time next year, Bryant will be an early round fantasy draft selection.  Roy Williams will finally be gone, and Miles Austin and Bryant will be considered the most dangerous wide receiver duo since Fitzgerald and Boldin.  What I'm saying is, I'm guessing he'll be worth the sixth round pick it will cost to keep him next year.

Pick 9-4: RB Felix Jones (Dal)

By now I have secured all my offensive starters and have backed up my wide receivers with a strong stand-in option.  It's time to grab a backup running back.  Felix Jones is still available, and the fates have ordained that Jones will overtake Marion Barber this year in that backfield.  I don't expect a lot of consistency here because Dallas is, afterall, a three back committee (Jones, Barber, Choice).  With some luck, his value will rise during the course of the season.

Pick 10- 9: DEF Philadelphia

I have drafted my starting offense plus a backup wide receiver and running back.  I am now "allowed" to go after a defense according to my draft plan.  The New York Jets defense is no longer availabe, but as the consensus #1 defense of 2010, I hardly expected to grab them.  But at this point, a few defenses that I have ranked below Philadlphia were already taken, so I went with my second choice defense in the eleventh round.  In hindsight, Philly may have still been available one or two rounds later, but I would have otherwise taken another running back, and the best option left was still there for my next pick anyway.  I just hope I wasn't wrong to show Philly so much love.

Pick 11-4: RB Carnell Williams (TB)

What I like: Williams is the clear featured back, and with Derrick Ward getting the boot, there is no one there to compete with him.

What I don't like: The Bucs looked pretty lousy last year, and unless a magic spell has been placed on the NFC South that makes the basement team of one year rise to the top of the division the next, Tampa will stink again this year.  Then again... maybe the NFC South is enchanted...

Williams probably won't get the chance to start on my team unless I have injuries at that position.  He's past his prime and needs a strong offensive line and passing game to open it up enough for him to have a good year.  If I have to play him, he'll do something for me, but won't put up big numbers.  That's what I look for in a RB4, but make no mistake, he's on the fringe of my roster and will get dropped if a better option presents itself in free agency (I'm eyeing Chester Taylor right now who is still available in my league).

Pick 12-9: K David Akers (Phi)

I broke a cardinal rule of the fantasy experts by drafting a kicker this early, but all three of the players I took in the last rounds were the guys I would have taken anyway.  So, no harm no fowl I guess.  If it's possible to predict who will have a strong year at kicker and Akers, one of my top choices this year, does well, I'll be happy I made this move.  On the other hand, it might have been a mistake taking the Philadelphia kicker and defense as both will have a bye the same week, but I'll worry about that when it happens.

Pick 13-4: QB Chad Henne (Mia)

I can't say that I love this pick (having Roethlisberger as my backup quarterback would have been nice) but I do like it a lot.  With the addition of Brandon Marshall, I think Miami's new quarterback could be in for a surprising season.  He showed a of poise last year in my opinion, and with a strong running game and defense to lean on, he could develop quickly.  If he emerges as a fantasy starter, he has some definite keeper value for an eleventh round pick next year.  If he proves to be no more than a spot-starter, I think he's still a good option playing against Tennessee when Rodgers has his bye.  In short, this is a low risk high reward pick, but if Rodgers gets hurt, I'm in trouble.

Pick 14-9: TE Chris Cooley (Was)

Cooley is a solid backup tight end.  I'll likely start him week one since Owen Daniels is coming back from surgery, and obviously he will stand in for Daniels' bye.  Otherwise, he will probably only see action with my team if Daniels gets hurt, but if that happens, I think Cooley is a solid substitution.  He will have to share catches with Fred Davis, but McNabb will depend on his tight ends a lot this year to bail him out when Moss can't get open.

Pick 15-4: RB Ben Tate (Hou) - IR

I planned on making this pick since about a week before my draft when Tate got injured and was placed on IR.  He could be money as a keeper, and there's no arguing with the thirteenth round pick price it will cost me to hold on to him next year.  He immediately went to one of my IR spots, so he won't even take up space on my roster.  Finally, I decided to do this because I planned on seeking out a wide receiver sleeper from free agency early in the season.  Last year saw the emergence of players like Miles Austin and Steve Smith (both went undrafted in my league) and I suspect that there will be more surprise players at that position again this year.

Free Agency Acquisition: WR Mike Williams (TB)

As of week three in the preseason, it looks like Williams will be the guy in Tampa Bay.  If Tampa is as bad as I think they will be this year, that doesn't count for much.  But there is a chance that Williams will be one of this year's surprise wide receivers.  I will keep my eyes open in the first few weeks of the season and grab someone else if I see something special.  I really hope I succeed at picking up a true wide receiver sleeper because if I do, not only will it help solidify my receiving corps, but I will have another keeper for next year.

So... that's my 2010 fantasy team.  If there are any readers out there, now is the time to make your presence known.  What do you think of my team?  Is there anything I should have done differently?

If you would like to see the complete draft click "Read more" just below (I'm NY Foot Soldiers).  Cheers!

Fantasy Football Draft Advice

Well folks, it's definitely that time of year...  Those of us who didn't make our fantasy drafts ridiculously early because we weren't really sure if Brett Favre was coming back, or if Vincent Jackson would get his new contract, or if Sidney Rice might end up being out for half the season are holding our live drafts right about now.  I drafted my team in my standard 12 team keeper league just three days ago, and I gotta say, looking over that stacked fantasy roster every couple of hours is a beautiful thing!

For those of you out there in fantasy world who haven't drafted yet, here's some advice to help you start off your season on the right foot.  If you have already drafted your 2010 fantasy team, then just bookmark this post for next year ;)

1) Show up!

They say that half of life is showing up.  That's just as true when it comes to a fantasy football live draft.  These days, most fantasy leagues are managed with a fantasy site like Yahoo! (who needs the hassel of tracking and calculating all the stats themselves?).  So if you don't show up to your live draft, the computer will just make your picks for you either based on your own personal rankings or the default rankings of the fantasy site.  Don't rely on this!  Simply put, the computer isn't as smart as you.  When you participate in a live draft, you can consider things such as where there is still a deep value pool, which position you need a player to fill more, and who your opponents will likely draft next (here's some foreshadowing for the rest of this advice column).  You probably don't want your draft based on a fantasy site's model, and creating your own draft rankings that includes every position is not as easy as it sounds.  Someone ended up taking a kicker in the fifth round of our draft because he wasn't present and that's what his draft rankings did to him when autopick was turned on.  Show up!

2) Come prepared

Know your league's rules and settings including roster configuration, how scoring is calculated, if your league rewards points per reception, etc.  Keep up with what's happening in the NFL.  That is to say, you should know who the high profile draft picks were, who was traded, who was cut, who was injured, who was suspended, and who is holding out over a contract dispute.

Once you know what's going on, try to put that information together into a draft list or "cheat sheet" that ranks the players according to what you think their relative values are.  The list should spell out their values in more specifically than just rankings: include what round they should be taken in or if players have near equivalent value, or if there is a big drop-off between two adjacent players.  You may want to have ADP (average draft position) values handy so you have an idea on how long you can wait on a player for so you don't draft him too soon.

If you show up with to your draft prepared, you will have a clear advantage over those guys who decide to wing it.  Trust me!

3) Have a plan

Admittedly, this advice begins to enter murky waters because having a rigid draft strategy can ruin a draft.  As such, try not to think of your plan as a blue print where you have to follow the instructions exactly.  Instead, your plan should be more like a map which shows you all of the different possible routes you can take: the best option available to you will change depending on the traffic.

You might say to yourself,  "I don't want to draft a quarterback early because there will be solid options still available in the middle rounds, but if I see a huge value pick like Aaron Rodgers at the end of the second round, I'm jumping on that!"

There are many different ways to put together a solid team, and while you should have several ideas on how you can do it, remember that the best strategy will depend on what everyone else does.

4) Practice

If you aren't already aware, you can participate in a draft on most fantasy sites now where the results means absolutely nothing.  You don't have to keep and play with the team you end up with; it's just for practice and to test out draft strategies.  This is called a mock draft.

Do a few of them, maybe three or five.  Try drafting from different positions and using different strategies.  This will help give you an idea on which plans of attack are winners, and which ones can bite you in the later rounds.

Make sure you treat your mock drafts as you would a real draft.  This year I ignored bye weeks when doing my mock drafts because I was just worried about what value I could get with different strategies.  When the real draft came along, I automatically drafted the same way I practiced.  If you treat a mock draft like it's the real thing, you'll learn a lot more, like if you try to have your draft list open in one window and your draft open in another, the screen will be too small for you to see everything (something I learned in a mock draft this year).

5) Know your opponent

Chances are that if you have played fantasy football before, this year you are playing with many of the same people.  Look back at last year's draft (if you can) and see what they did.  Chances are that they will draft in much the same way.  In my league last year, my brother waited into the deep rounds to select his quartbacks and ended up with Brett Favre and Kurt Warner.  It worked out for him, and I had every reason to believe he would employ the same strategy again this year.

He did.

6) Bring your poker face

We all do it... the draft begins and after only a few picks, people start talking.  They talk about which picks were smart and which ones were mistakes.  They start cracking jokes and reminiscing about last year's league.  There's nothing wrong with that, but don't let it get in the way of businness.  When you enter a live draft, you are entering a battle field and EVERYONE is your enemy!  Pay attention to the picks, because you need to know who's still available and you should be keeping track of what others are doing.  It will pay off later when you can predict their next picks.  Someone may even show some love for a player you take (now you know you've got some potential trade bait, make a note).

Look closely for hints.  Someone might drop a strong hint that he is going to reach pick the New York Jets defense.  Good to know.  At the same time, don't give away what you're doing.  If The Annihilators is eyeing Ronnie Brown in the fifth round and you make it clear that you're going to take him sooner, you may have just cost yourself a player.

7) Make your picks carefully

When you are making a pick you need to consider three things.  What position do I need to fill now?  Which remaing players have the most value?  Who will still be there for my next pick?

Let's say there is one super stud wide receiver left on the board, and a handful and a half of what you consider to be "decent" running backs.  You already drafted two wide receivers and desperately need to fill that second running back spot.  Well, chances are one of those running backs will still be around and the wide receiver will be gone.  You can even look at the players that will be drafting between your two picks and confirm that they need receivers and will likely draft them.  Now you can avoid the mistake of addressing a need and take the receiver now and a suitable running back a few picks later.  When it comes to a fantasy draft, there's no rule that says you never get to have your cake and eat it too.

8) Don't reach

You absolutely love, are over the moon for, simply have to have Greg Jennings this year.  With Donald Driver over the hill and Aaron Rodgers peaking, you know Jennings is going to be a monster and plan to draft him that way.  Well, check out Jennings' ADP that you conveniently included on your draft sheet, and you might see that he typically gets drafted in the early fourth round.  (Maybe not, I'm not sure where is ADP is at presently, but just go with it).  You may love him as a second round pick, but you're going to do the smart thing and take a solid second rounder confident that Jennings will still be there when the draft snakes it's way back to you in the third round.

Simply put, try not to spend too much on a player.  If you think someone is way undervalued, then draft him a round or a round and a half early to be sure you'll snag him, depending on your draft position, and get value out him.  If you reach too far, you'll miss out on a golden opportunity that spotting the "sleepers" gives you.  No one puts together a great fantasy team by always paying "fair market value."  Pay less than what a player is worth a couple of times in your draft, and you have set yourself on the path to a championship!

9) Don't waste a pick on a backup defense or kicker

I decided to write this blog so that fantasy managers could learn from the mistakes I have made, and likely will make in the future.  Last year I drafted backups to my defense and kicker, and to say it was an error in judgement would be a major understatement.

First of all, defenses don't get injured.  Brian Ulacher and Troy Polamalu (did you hear his hair is insured for $1 million now by the way?) can get injured and hurt the value of your defense, but your defense isn't going down, and you don't need to back them up as if they could.

Secondly, kickers aren't worth much.  This isn't because they won't, on occassion, help you win a game, but you will be hard pressed to predict who will have a good season, let alone a good game.  If your kicker gets hurt, there will be other options out there in free agency.

Thirdly, they each have only ONE bye week to cover.  If you're starting two running backs in your league, your backups will have to fill in twice, and with three wide receivers, your backups will have to fill in three times, and that's assuming your starters don't get injured.  With three wide receivers, chances are good at least one will get injured over the course of the season and be out for at least a couple of weeks.  Use the extra two roster spots you didn't waste on another kicker or defense to shore up your depth at wide receiver and running back.  At the very least, they will serve as trade bait when everyone else's players start getting hurt.

For that matter, don't draft your kicker or defense too early either.  Many experts will say not to draft a defense until the second to last round, and just about all will tell you not to draft a kicker until the last round.  I won't take my advice to that extreme because in the "real" world of fantasy football, the other people in your draft might not have gotten the memo not to draft a defense earlier, and if everone in your draft takes a defense in the tenth round, you could be left with  the bottom of the barrel.  Let's say as a rule, don't draft a defense or kicker until you have filled all your starting positions and have at least one backup running back and one backup wide receiver.

10) Have fun!

Always remember that fantasy football is a game, and from draft day to the championship you should treat it that way.  Sure, if you end up with a terrible team because you didn't draft well you'll probably be grumbling about it until next year's draft, but if you're not going to have fun in the first place, what's the point?  This year, I was all bussiness in preparing for my draft.  I looked over stats, read expert advice, payed attention to the moves and injuries, and participated in mock the drafts, always like I was being payed to do it.  But when the draft finally came, it was more about the fun of playing a game with my friends.  We chatted, we joked, and we caught up (all the while I was paying attention to the draft, of course).

Make sure you enjoy yourself in the draft, and all season long.  If it isn't fun for you, find a new hobby.  Building a ship in a bottle has sadly gone out of fashion, and it can be quite stimulating!

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Good luck with your drafts, and your season as a whole.  I look forward to hearing how it works out for all of you.

TOMORROW'S POST: My Fantasy Draft