We are exactly one week away from the start of the regular season, and I am already thinking about how I can make my fantasy team better, and you should be too!
Last year,
Miles Austin,
Steve Smith (NYG) and
Rashard Mendenhall all went undrafted in my 10-team league. As of today, their ADPs (average draft positions) on
NFL.com are 23.2, 40.9, and 13.6 respectively, placing all three players in the first four rounds of a 12-team league's draft. Though the fantasy experts stake their reputations on spotting these "sleepers" before the start of the season, a few will inevitably slip between the cracks in any draft. In the first 1-4 weeks of the season, you will have the opportunity to recognize who this year's Miles Austin will be, and have the chance to add him to your fantasy roster. In this post, I will tell you what you should be looking for when seeking out the diamond in the rough, and it all has to do with opportunity.
Look for the Openings:
One thing you should look for when searching for an undrafted break-out player is an opening created by the departure of a high-profile player. You may remember that last year the New York Giants started their season without an established first option wide receiver. Plaxico Burress was sent to prison for carrying a concealed weapon, and Amani Toomer was released by the Giants. I knew at the start of the season that someone would have to emerge in the team's young receiver corps. Both Steve Smith and Mario Manningham stepped up and had break out seasons, though Smith posted stronger numbers.
This season begins with equally uncertain situations at wide receiver for teams like the Denver Broncos after the departure of Brandon Marshall to Miami. Fantasy experts and managers alike have recognized the opening in Denver, though there is no concensus as to who to target.
Jabar Gaffney,
Eddie Royal,
Brandon Lloyd, and
Demaryius Thomas are all in the mix, and chances are that at least a couple of those players will be free agents when the season starts. Other teams that don't have a clear cut go to guy at wide receiver include Oakland, Tampa Bay, Cleveland, and St. Louis. Other teams, such as the Chicago Bears, don't have established elite wide receivers, but are being drafted as sleepers all the same. Keep your eye on any openings at wide receiver on these teams.
Washington and Seattle have similar situations at running back, so keep your eye on any undrafted back on those teams, but remember, these situations will likely turn into backfield committees.
From a Bust to a Burst:
I'm ashamed to say it, but last year I drafted Roy Williams as my WR1. Ouch! But really, the mistake wasn't drafting Roy Williams. My mistake was not recognizing and correcting my mistake. For about four weeks, I placed Williams in my starting roster expecting him to become
the guy in Dallas. It never happened, and by the time I realized that Williams was poison, Austin had already been recruited to another team.
If you end up with a bust on your team, it's especially important that you recognize it in the early part of the season (say, no later than the end of week 3). If your player is proving to be a disappointment, try to identifiy the player that will step up and fill that role and you can cut your losses and get on with your season. Look sharp or someone else will take the sleeper before you do. By the same token, don't limit your scouting to the busts on your team. A rival manager's bust can also lead you to free agency gold. Pick up the sleeper first and you have added strength to your roster, and secured a trade opportunity (said rival will be itching to take that player).
Injury:
In 2009, Willie Parker went down and Rashard Mendenhall got the nod. He proved to be a solid fantasy starter. Today, many fantasy managers hedge their bets and draft the high profile handcuff for their running backs, but it's a big investment for a player that probably won't see any play time. Many of the better handcuffs, such as
Thomas Jones, will remain undrafted in your league, and even a player you never heard of has the potential to step up and perform at a high level when the guy in front of him on the depth chart is injured.
Injuries at wide receiver can give an opportunity for another player to break out as well. Keep an eye on injury reports throughout the season and you will have a chance to pick up some valuable sleepers.
The most valuable handcuffs: Thomas Jones,
Ricky Williams,
Tim Hightower,
Willis McGahee,
LaDainian Tomlinson
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Keep your eyes and ears open, especially in the first few weeks, and don't wait too long to make your move, and you will be rewarded, perhaps with a championship! Stay tuned throughout the season, and I will give my thoughts on who to target as the surprise starter.
