Week 2: Matchup and Picks

My Matchup:

Other Matchups:

Innane Immunity (0-1) vs. taco trali (1-0)
HgbA1C (0-0-1) vs. Revis Islanders* (0-1)
Stat Attack (0-1) vs. Currently Nameless (1-0)
MOD (1-0) vs. Philly Chromosomes (0-1)
Trojans!* (1-0) vs. Sicker Jets D (1-0)

*My Division Rivals

My Picks:

In addition to playing fantasy football, I play in a pickem league (where you select who you think will win each game every week) and a survival league (select one team every week that you think will win its matchup--you are out when you get one wrong and you cannot pick the same team twice). You can find all three football games on Yahoo!

Every week, I will give my football picks along with my thoughts regarding any particularly interesting matchups. As always, you should feel free to open up a discussion with comments. Here are this week's matchups with my picks in blue, my survival pick in purple, and previous survival picks crossed out.

Atlanta vs. Arizona
The Falcons couldn't squeak by the Steelers, even with Roethlisberger's suspension, but I expect them to bounce back against Arizona which, without Kurt Warner, looks like a Cardinal with its head cut off.

Cincinnati vs. Baltimore
The Ravens had a short week to work with and the Bengals have to be angry after being humiliated by New England, but there's just too many ways Flacco and company can burn you.

Cleveland vs. Kansas City

Dallas vs. Chicago
The Cowboys looked completely discombobulated last week, but with the return of two starting offensive linemen, their offense should settle down.

Detroit vs. Philadelphia
Both teams lost their starting quarterbacks last week, but I'd feel better with Vick behind center than Hill.

Green Bay vs. Buffalo
Two opponents fell in week one, and week two has a lot of tough matchups.  Looking at the Packers' schedule, there aren't that many perfect weeks to save them for, so I'm going with the safe pick this week for my Survival League.

Tennessee vs. Pittsburgh
This will be trench warfare, but the Titans have the better artillery with Vince Young.

Minnesota vs. Miami
The Vikings' defense is just too good, and Favre will get back on track this week.

Carolina vs. Tampa Bay

Denver vs. Seattle

Oakland vs. St. Louis

New York Jets vs. New England
If the Jets can contain Wes Welker and convert third down, they can win a relatively low scoring game.  I suspect they'll pull it off, but it won't be pretty.

San Diego vs. Jacksonville

Washington vs. Houston
Last week the Texans showed us what they can do on the ground.  Against the Redskins, they'll remind us what they can do through the air.

Indianapolis vs. New York Giants
The Colts start 0-2?  Not likely!  The Giants will succeed early with their running game, but once the Colts gain the lead, little brother Eli won't be able to keep up.

San Francisco vs. New Orleans

Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, and...

Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark

Barring injuries, we all know that wide receiver Reggie Wayne and tight end Dallas Clark will have tremendous fantasy value this year.  After all, Peyton Manning's offense is always among the most prolific.  However, since Marvin Harrison's retirement one year ago, fantasy managers have been looking to see who will fill the star wide receiver roll opposite Wayne in Indianapolis.  In 2009, it was believed that Anthony Gonzalez would be the other guy, but an injury cost him his golden opportunity, and Manning turned to Pierre Carçon and Austin Collie to pick up the slack.

Everyone seemed to agree that Carçon would be the other wide receiver in Indy to have significant fantasy value in 2010, but Collie's performance in week one (163 yrds, 1 TD) is giving us all pause.  Will it be Collie and not Carçon who achieves fantasy stardom?  The answer probably won't make anyone happy, but here's how I see it...

Austin Collie and Pierre Carçon

Peyton Manning clearly has a lot of confidence in both Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark when he needs someone to make a big play.  They are both talented veterans who have proven their worth to Mannning time and time again, and have developed invaluable chemistry with the league's best helmsman.  On the other hand, Carçon, Collie, and Gonzalez has each shown talent and developed good communication with their quarterback.  Manning has to trust each of these guys but none of them as much as he does Wayne or Clark.

The result of this scenario will end up being something like the situation in New Orleans where Drew Brees spreads the ball around too efficiently to make anyone other than himself and Marques Colston a fantasy star.  In 2010, when you hear Pierre Carçon, Austin Collie, or Anthony Gonzalez, think Robert Meachem and Devery Henderson.  All of these guys will have some spectacular weeks, but none of them will be reliable on a consistent basis unless injury puts them into a more prevalent roll.

Though you can't expect too much from any of the other wide receivers in Indianapolis, that doesn't mean they don't have any value.  Austin Collie owners should consider trading him at high value after his impressive performance last week, before he fantasy numbers come back to earth.  Carçon, and Gonzalez will likely have similar weeks in the near future, raising their respective values on the trade market.  Even if you can't unload your Indy WR, consider starting him based on your fantasy matchup in a given week.  If you are playing a daunting opponent, you may want to start a player like Collie who has the potential to put up huge numbers rather than someone like Santana Moss who will almost certainly put up solid numbers, but will probably not put up huge numbers.  Then rotate Moss back into the starting lineup when you play a weaker opponent and want to go for the sure thing.  Rotating all-or-nothing players with solid-but-unspectacular players can help you optimize wins and bring you to a championship.

Collie, Carçon, and to a lesser extent Carçon, are perfect examples of the all-or-nothing players and players who will fetch a lot a lot on the trade market after a big performance.  Treat them that way; none of them are Reggie Wayne in the fantasy world, or the real world.

Week 1: Picks

In addition to playing fantasy football, I play in a pickem league (where you select who you think will win each game every week) and a survival league (select one team every week that you think will win its matchup--you are out when you get one wrong and you cannot pick the same team twice). You can find all three football games on Yahoo!

Every week, I will give my football picks along with my thoughts regarding any particularly interesting matchups. As always, you should feel free to open up a discussion with comments. Here are this week's matchups with my picks in blue, and my survival pick in purple.

New Orleans vs. Minnesota
A rematch of last year's NFC championship. I like the Saints to repeat their win while Favre struggles to find new targets in the passing game.

Buffalo vs. Miami
C.J. Spiller is the only thing the Bills have going for them. The well-rounded Dolphins are my survival pick of the week.

Chicago vs. Detroit

Tennessee vs. Oakland

New England vs. Cincinnati
Tom Brady is still an elite quarterback and Randy Moss is still an elite wide receiver. Welker will be there to help in the short passing game, but with a weak defense and undefined running game, the Patriots have become 1-dimensional. The Bengals are anything but.

New York Giants vs. Carolina

Pittsburgh vs. Atlanta
The Steelers will lean on their running game and defense, rejuvenated by the return of Troy Polomalu. Dixon avoids making any big mistakes which is enough to win a close one against the Falcons.

Tampa Bay vs. Cleveland

Jacksonville vs. Denver

Houston vs. Indianapolis
I really like Houston this year, but as they spend the year figuring out just how good they really are, the Colts already know how good they are (having won at least 12 games for the last seven years). The Colts give Houston a lesson.

St. Louis vs. Arizona
The Cardinals are about to learn just how much they needed Kurt Warner to be a playoff team. The loss of Boldin just makes matters worse as Fitzgerald will see double coverage all day.

Philadelphia vs. Green Bay

Seattle vs. San Francisco

Washington vs. Dallas
The Cowboys will be in big trouble this season until they solve their offensive line issues. I actually wouldn't be at all surprised if Washington walked away with a win here, but I think the Cowboys slip through.

New York Jets vs. Baltimore
This may be the most intriguing matchup of the week as Rex Ryan takes on his old team. The Ravens are one of the elite teams in the AFC this year, but early growing pains for this offense will be exacerbated as they face the Jets' smothering defense. Mark Sanchez has to avoid turnovers to seal the deal.

Kansas City vs. San Diego

How I See It

My 2010 NFL Power Rankings

Playoff Berths:

AFC                                                                             NFC

East - Jets                                                                  East - Cowboys

North - Ravens                                                        North - Packers

West - Chargers                                                       West - 49ers

South - Colts                                                             South - Saints

Wildcards - Texans, Bengals                              Wildcards - Vikings, Falcons

Superbowl:

Packers vs. Colts (Packers win)